Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
One of the non-traditional but now formerly recognised lead-up races to the iconic Melbourne Cup takes place at Geelong today, the $225,000 Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m), and below the Races.com.au crew have the exclusive Geelong Cup form guide analysis and betting tips.
Due to jump at 4:00pm (AEDST) as Geelong Race 7– the 2011 Geelong Cup field features 13 genuine gallopers many of which are hoping for a win, ensuing penalty and frog-leap-up the elimination order for the $6.2 million Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington on the first Tuesday of November.
Geelong Cup betting at our preferred online bookmaker Luxbet is led by the Robert Hickmott-trained Tanby at a quote of $3.50.
After winning over 2500 metres at Moonee Valley last month, Tanby was super impressive when going down a mere nose to Shewan in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) at Caulfield on October 8.
“He needed the run in the Herbert Power – he was four weeks between runs, stepping up to the mile-and-a-half for the first time, so I think you’ll see a very good showing,” co-owner Nick Williams said of Tanby.
Drawn in gate six is also the ideal starting position for Tanby according to Williams.
“Six of 13, which is absolutely perfect,” he said.
“He’ll be like he always is, up there on the pace, and all things being equal he’ll be in or around the money.”
While confidence is high among Tanby’s connections, there are still 12 horses they must beat out on the field today including four that are at single-figure odds in the Geelong Cup betting markets at Luxbet.
So, is Tanby the deserved favourite and can they salute for the punters this afternoon? Or is there an upset Geelong Cup result on the cards with one of the other main dangers such as French raider Dunaden, Luca Cumani’s evergreen veteran Bauer, market mover I’m Jake or the Anthony Cummings-trained Red Eye Special to get the win?
To save our readers time trawling through the 2011 Geelong Cup form guide, the Races.com.au team have done the research and form analysis on the race and come up with the crucial facts to consider when placing a bet on the Geelong Cup at Luxbet today.
2011 Geelong Cup Form Facts & Betting
- Last year’s Geelong Cup winner Americain won their race at their Australian debut before taking out the Melbourne Cup at their next start; this year #1 Dunaden ($5 Luxbet) is also a French-trained raider having their maiden run in Oz this afternoon
- Americain jumped from barrier one for their Geelong Cup win 12 months ago; this year #6 I’m Jake ($8.50) will get the rails run from the inside gate
- Race favourite #4 Tanby ($3.50 Luxbet) boasts the highest Win Rate of the field on 46.15%, the next-best belong to #8 Spechenka (33.33%) and #9 Rebel Soldier (30.00%)
- The best Place Rates of the field belong to #4 Tanby (84.62%), #1 Dunaden (73.08%) and #6 I’m Jake (56.52%)
- The only horses with form at the Geelong track are #2 Bauer (1-1-0-0) who won the 2008 Geelong Cup, #4 Tanby (1-0-0-1), #10 Hume (1-1-0-0) and #13 Perfect Pecs (1-0-1-0)
- Over the Geelong Cup distance the horses with the best record are #1 Dunaden (6-2-3-1), #2 Bauer (6-2-1-0), #3 Showcause (7-2-2-0), #6 I’m Jake (2-1-1-0), #8 Spechenka (6-3-0-0) and #9 Rebel Soldier (2-1-0-0)
- Geelong is currently rated a Dead (4) and Geelong Cup hopes with good form on Dead ground are #1 Dunaden (4-1-1-1), #4 Tanby (9-4-2-2), #6 I’m Jake (9-3-2-1), #8 Spechenka (7-2-0-1) and #13 Perfect Pecs (6-2-2-1)
The Races.com.au team like to bet with our heads and the above Geelong Cup form guide facts make Tanby a horse that is hard to go past.
Races.com.au Geelong Cup 2011 Tip
- Trifecta Tip: #4 Tanby from #6 I’m Jake and #1 Dunaden – Bet now at Luxbet
- Exotic Inclusion: #8 Spechenka ($26 Luxbet to Win)
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2011 Geelong Cup Form Guide
Geelong Race 7 – 19/10/2011
|1.||DUNADEN||Mikel Delzangles||Craig Williams||8||58||6yoH||59||$13,794||26: 6 8 5||23.08%||73.08%||2312×9|
|2.||BAUER||L M Cumani||Damien Oliver||9||56||9yoG||11||$48,526||24: 7 4 1||29.17%||50.00%||54×016|
|3.||SHOWCAUSE||F T Ritchie||Luke Nolen||13||53.5||6yoG||17||$14,443||27: 5 6 3||18.52%||51.85%||29×803|
|4.||TANBY||Robert Hickmott||Steven King||6||53||5yoG||11||$14,073||13: 6 2 3||46.15%||84.62%||4×0312|
|5.||ABOVE AVERAGE||Anthony Freedman||Lisa Cropp||11||53||6yoG||17||$11,934||26: 2 5 5||7.69%||46.15%||30×946|
|6.||I’M JAKE||D Brideoake and D Feek||Dwayne Dunn||1||53||6yoG||18||$9,275||23: 6 5 2||26.09%||56.52%||32×581|
|7.||BACK IN BLACK||J J Steffert||Craig Newitt||5||53||6yoG||3||$2,727||40: 8 2 0||20.00%||25.00%||594158|
|8.||SPECHENKA||Ben Ahrens||Michael Walker||10||53||6yoG||18||$11,548||33: 11 3 1||33.33%||45.45%||155309|
|9.||REBEL SOLDIER||D A Hayes||James Winks||3||53||5yoG||25||$17,252||10: 3 0 0||30.00%||30.00%||0x0800|
|10.||HUME||D Brideoake and D Feek||Stephen Baster||12||53||8yoG||25||$11,769||27: 6 5 1||22.22%||44.44%||745070|
|11.||RED EYE SPECIAL||A J Cummings||Chris Symons||2||53||5yoG||18||$5,275||17: 4 4 0||23.53%||47.06%||4×6125|
|12.||DIYARAKA||M D Moroney||Kerrin Mc Evoy||4||53||5yoM||12||$9,718||10: 2 2 1||20.00%||50.00%||13×006|
|13.||PERFECT PECS||R G Hore-lacy||Dean Yendall||7||53||4yoH||13||$4,776||13: 3 2 2||23.08%||53.85%||330121|
*Form Guide Credit Ladbrokes.com.au
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