After originally looking at the possibility of heading into odds-on territory in the 2011 Caulfield Cup odds, race favourite December Draw has continued to drift out in the betting as punters question their ability to step up to the 2400-hundred metres today.
Prepared by Mark Kavanagh, imported European racehorse December Draw has uncovered a new lease on their racing life since getting their hooves on Aussie soil.
A dismal European record was quickly forgotten as the Medecis gelding took Australia by storm winning five of their six starts in Melbourne including their hard-fought victory in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) last-stat on October 2.
December Draw may be untested over the 2400 metres, but this didn’t stop them opening at $2.25 in the Luxbet markets for the $2.5 million Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2500m).
Since then, however, money has rolled in for a number of their rivals and December Draw has continued to ease in their favouritism, now out to $2.70.
Caulfield Cup Betting Moves on December Draw:
- Opening Odds: $2.25
- Fluc 1: $2.50
- Fluc 2: $2.60
- Current Fixed Win: $2.70 – bet now at Luxbet
Kavanagh has done wonders to turn December Draw from an unwanted European castoff to a Caulfield Cup favourite, and is confident that they won’t just make the trip today, but that they will win over it.
“Nobody seems to have uncovered the fact this horse had the first race of his life over 1600 metres and that was as a two-year-old,” Kavanagh said.
“In fact, he’s never contested a race shorter than 1600 metres, which should tell you something.
“It certainly tells me something…and that is he should be able to graduate to 2400 metres.
“I set him for the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cups in April, which tells you something about what distances I thought the horse would run.”
He may be untried at the distance, but December Draw is weighted for the Caulfield Cup win set to carry just 54.5kg and with the four emergencies now officially scratched they will jump from barrier nine, which is ideal for them to stay out of trouble but not get caught too far back.
Punters may be sceptical to put late money on a favourite that is drifting in the Caulfield Cup markets, but history shows that December Draw being out from $2.50 to $2.70 is favourable for them historically speaking.
There have been six Caulfield Cup favourites in history to start at $2.50 or shorter in the betting, but of these only three have come good for the punters with Tulloch ($1.65 in 1957), Manfred ($2.25 in 1926) and Eurythmic ($2.50 in 1925).
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan has also reported that the punters are abandoning December Draw.
“We have wound him out to $2.70 but punters don’t want a bar of him at the moment,” Sullivan said.
Talk in the bookies’ camps is that December Draw could drift out to as much as $3 before the Caulfield Cup jumps as Race 8 at 4:05pm (EDT).
Don’t be scared to back December Draw for the ‘Win’ thanks to Luxbet’s $250 2nd Place Refund Bet Offer!
Back any horse in the Caulfield Cup today to ‘Win’ and if they finish second to the Caulfield Cup winner then you will get up to $250 back as a bonus bet.