Trainer Bjorn Baker is snug about the chances of...
The Races.com.au crew have already published our insider 2011 Caulfield Cup Day Tips for today’s blockbuster 10-race programme, so below we expand on a few of our selections and list our best bets of the day to get our readers winning big.
Lay of the Day – Race 3 #1 Dowager Queen
Kiwi filly is at the top of the odds for the $100,000 Listed Ethereal Stakes (2000m) at 12:45pm (EDT), but she is the 56kg topweight giving a kilo to some in-form fillies. Dowager Queen is paying $2.60 to win through Luxbet but she didn’t step up to the mile well last-start when beaten nearly seven lengths in the Flight Stakes so don’t fancy her over the 2000m.
Luxbet’s Paul Vincent agrees with our assessment here.
“I think she is way under the odds for a filly that got beaten over six lengths last start,” Vincent said of Dowager Queen.
“She also gets back which is a concern and the stable is hardly churning out winners.”
Value Win Bet – Race 3 #3 Roma Giaconda
Odds on Roma Giaconda to upset Dowager Queen in the third have gone out from $4.20 to $5.50 at Luxbet and this is great value to us.
She is drawn to stay out of trouble in barrier eight and although she was beaten nine lengths in the Flight Stakes, she drops in weight and has the strong form in Sydney against the boys when second to Golden Rose winner Manawanui in the Stan Fox to suggest she is more capable than last-start.
In a Tight Market – Race #4 Costly Commitment
There are seven horses at single-figures in the Luxbet markets for the $125,000 Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes (2000m) at 1:20pm (EDT), and of them we like Costly Commitment at a nice price of $8.50.
Okay, so their inside barrier two draw could be dangerous with the rail out 6 metres, but the favourite is #8 Niagara ($3.70 Luxbet) who has the rails. If jockey Craig Newitt can follow Niagara up and stay out of trouble, then Costly Commitment has the late sectional times to get home over the 2000m having run a good third from a bad gate to Isopach and Eagle Command in the UCI Stakes over 1800m at Flemington last start.
Unbeatable – Race 5 #1 Sepoy
They are short in the market paying $1.23 at Luxbet, but really nothing should stop Sepoy here. Has the rails run in a small field, is at the right weight, won the Group 1 Manikato last start, faces an inferior field and we see his price as a 23% bonus for every dollar we put on him!
Caulfield Cup Reject – Race 7 #10 Midnight Martini
Didn’t make the Caulfield Cup as the fourth emergency, but that’s okay because Moody’s super-consistent mare can take out the $75k first prize in the Group 3 David Jones Cup (2000m) instead.
Has firmed in from $8 to $4.60 in the Luxbet markets and it is definitely worth following the money trail here. Unbeaten over the distance and her fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes was eye-catching, comes back in distance and should fly home from the draw.
Stay tuned to Races.com.au throughout today for all the Caulfield Cup Day betting updates, results and tips.
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