Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
There’s only a few hours to go until the 2011 Caulfield Cup takes place in Melbourne, and while the money continues to come in for an upset result this afternoon, the Races.com.au team are sticking with the easing favourite December Draw.
The bookies predicted that Mark Kavanagh’s in-form import December Draw would continue to drift out in the Caulfield Cup oddstoday, and that has definitely been the case.
After being as short as $2.25 a few days ago, and paying $2.70 at Luxbet this morning, the last-start Turnbull Stakes winner is now out to $2.80 to become the 2011 Caulfield Cup winner.
Punters are listening to the poo-pooing going on over December Draw’s ability to get to the 2400 metres for the first time today and are out for more value in the markets.
Big money has rolled in for the internationally-trained raiders, the overseas form tipped to stack up against the relatively weak Caulfield Cup horses from Oz today.
But following the money isn’t always a winning move and can be dangerous, and after studying the Caulfield Cup field and form the Races.com.au team have December Draw rated special to win.
2011 Caulfield Cup Tips – Caulfield Race 8 Betting
- To Win: #9 December Draw – Rated Special to Win at $2.80 through Luxbet
So he hasn’t been to the distance, Kavanagh isn’t worried and neither are we. Kavanagh is a Melbourne Cup winning trainer and wouldn’t be as excited over this horse on this day if he didn’t fancy him to get the trip. This horse has already excelled what its mediocre breeding suggests it should be able to do, so they can overcome their non-staying pedigree too.
Distance aside, everything else says December Draw is capable:
– 54.kg weight, meets the next best-fancied in the betting Mighty High ($9 Luxbet) 2.5kg better
– Barrier nine draw, wide enough to stay out of trouble and superstitious punters will love that this gate has produced the most Caulfield Cup winners in recent history
– Won five from six in Australia, including the Turnbull last-start
- 2nd: #18 Southern Speed – Bet now at Luxbet
Classy South Australian mare has been crunched in the odds in from $21 to $10 at Luxbet. This is serious money on a serious contender. She is drawn in three, could be a little close to the rail for a big field and with the rail out six metres today, but she is good enough to overcome with the right ride from Craig Williams.
Big reason we like this horse is their light-weight, makes her very competitive but can she win?
- 3rd: #1 Mighty High – Bet now at Luxbet
Another Caulfield Cup betting market mover, in the No. 1 saddlecloth this Hong Kong raider has been well-supported in from $13 to $9 at Luxbet and his trainer John Moore is confident.
Darren Beadman rides and he had a gun ride earlier in the day on Ethereal Stakes winner Gliding, so punters are hoping he can reproduce a similar effort there.
Certainly lots to suggest Mighty High is capable including his barrier one draw which will suit his racing style, good form over the distance, third up in Australia and will have come on well from their fourth to Descarado, very unlucky fourth may we add, in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) last Saturday where they carried 2kg more than they have today.
- First Four Inclusion: #3 Manighar – Bet now at Luxbet
Luca Cumani’s fresh Linamix five-year-old is the only horse to have come through last year’s race. They do look very good in this, have the right draw, came via the same preparation as last year and have support in from $26 to $15 at Luxbet, just don’t think they will knock off the favourite.
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