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They don’t call legendary horseman Bart Cummings the ‘Cups King’ for nothing. Not only does he hold the record in the mighty Melbourne Cup having prepared 12 winners, but he is also the most successful Caulfield Cup winning horseman in history with seven successes, and today Precedence could become his eighth in the Caulfield Cup 2011.
Due to run as Caulfield Race 8 at 4:05pm (EDT), the $2.5 million Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m) features a full field of 18 starters with the four emergencies having now been officially scratched.
Caulfield Cup horse No. 6 is Precedence, a $21 chance in the Caulfield Cup markets at Luxbet drawn wide in barrier 20, now into gate 16 for Cummings.
Markets for the big spring showdown today are still lead by Mark Kavanagh’s last-start Turnbull Stakes winner December Draw, the easing favourite out from $2.25 to $2.70 at Luxbet but still the obvious favourite and pick of the race based on their consistent form this season.
With only one other galloper at single-figures in the markets, 57kg topweight Mighty High paying $9, punters around the country are looking for the value Caulfield Cup bet in the field and asking if Precedence could be it.
It is a tough ask of Precedence who has been short of their best for a while now, but with Bart anything is possible and to see him add another Caulfield Cup trophy to his cabinet today would be a fairy tale result.
Cummings is aware of monumental task ahead, especially from the awkward draw, but is happy with the horse and remains hopeful.
“He’s going well, he’s just drawn a bit wide unfortunately,” Cummings said.
“Hopefully he can overcome that with some good riding in the first couple of furlongs.”
So can Precedence become Cummings’ eighth Caulfield Cup winner? Below the Races.com.au team take a look at the evidence and form facts for and against Precedence to win the Caulfield Cup.
#6 Precedence – Horse Details
- Jockey: Steven Arnold
- Trainer: Bart Cummings
- Owners: Dato Tan Chin Nam, Sir P Hogan, The Dowager Duchess of Bedford, Mr B A Schroder
- Age: 6YO
- Gender: Gelding
- Breeding: by Zabeel (NZ) from Kowtow (USA)
- Career: 30-6-4-1
- Prizemoney: $825,970
- Track: 12-1-3-1
- Distance: 4-2-0-1
- Good: 17-3-2-1
- Dead: 8-3-0-0
- Current Caulfield Cup Odds: $21 Luxbet
Why Precedence Can Win Bart an Eighth Caulfield Cup
- Is prepared by the most successful Caulfield Cup trainer of all time, Bart Cummings, who has won the race seven times before most recently with Viewed (2009)
- Is bred for the distance being by the great New Zealand staying sire Zabeel
- Has great 2400m-form with two wins and a third place from four attempts, last win over the distance was the Listed Manion Cup at Rosehill in March last year
- Is the only horse in this year’s Caulfield Cup that has won at the Track & Distance before
- While their last-start 10th to December Draw last-start in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 2 looks unfavourable as a lead-up, the past two Caulfield Cup winners both came off unplaced runs in the Turnbull with Descrado (14th in 2010) and Viewed (7th in 2009)
- Is the right sex as a gelding; geldings have won five of the past 10 Caulfield Cups
- Gear change for the Caulfield Cup (Norton bit and blinkers come off, lugging bit goes on) is expected to improve them
Why Precedence Can’t Win the 2011 Caulfield Cup
- Has only won one of their 12 starts at Caulfield and that was back in April of 2009
- Win Rate of 20.00% is poor, probably not consistent enough against this field
- Hasn’t won a race since last year’s Moonee Valley Cup (October, 2010)
- Frankly, he faces a field of better winning chances
If you fancy Precedence to claim an upset Caulfield Cup result today, then head to Luxbet now and lock them in at the best odds in Australia.
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