Will Green Moon Rise and Become 2011 Caulfield Cup Winner?

There are only two horses in the 2011 Caulfield Cup field at single-figure odds to win Saturday’s big clash, meaning there is plenty of value to be found in the betting and one of the most enticing contenders in the markets for the win is the Lloyd Williams-owned Green Moon.

After the non-acceptance of Williams’ originally more fancied contenders for the $2.5 million Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m), including the now Cox Plate-bound Midas Touch, imported Monteju stallion Green Moon is now the sole contender for Williams and trainer Robert Hickmott in the race.

The five-year-old comes into the Caulfield Cup, which is set to run as Race 8 at 4:05pm (EDT) tomorrow, off the back of some interesting form.

They raced eight times in Europe for two wins over 2011 metres before being bought over to Australia.

Their two first-up runs in the country left a bit to be desired, but as they stepped up in distance so too did their form.

At the start of last month Green Moon finished second to the clear Caulfield Cup betting favourite December Draw over 2000 metres at Flemington, albeit they were beaten three and a half lengths.

They then went on to score their debut win down under with a gritty victory over a quality field in the Group 3 Newcastle Gold Cup (2300m) on September 15.

Now a month later Green Moon will attempt to win the richest 2400-metre handicap race in the world.

It is an unusual preparation and there are a number of questions over their form, but Green Moon is still one of top fancies in the markets occupying the third line of Caulfield Cup betting at Luxbet.

Trailing only the Mark Kavanagh-trained December Draw ($2.50) and John Moore’s market firmer Mighty High ($9.50), Green Moon is paying $11 to become the Caulfield Cup winner in 2011.

Below the Races.com.au team take a look at their chances, assessing Green Moon’s recent form and the Caulfield Cup history to see whether they are worth backing at Luxbet.

Green Moon – Horse Details

  • Jockey: Nicholas Hall
  • Trainer: Robert Hickmott
  • Owners: Mr N C Williams, Mr L J Williams, Mrs S J Williams
  • Age: 5YO
  • Gender: Entire
  • Breeding: by Montjeu (IRE) from Green Moon (FR)
  • Career: 12-4-1-0
  • Prizemoney: $226,596
  • Track: 0-0-0-0
  • Distance: 1-0-0-0
  • Good: 7-4-0-0
  • Dead: 3-0-1-0
  • Current Caulfield Cup Odds: $11 Luxbet

Yes – Green Moon Can Win the Caulfield Cup 2011:

  • Comes off a smart last-start win in the Newcastle Cup and should be fresh with the month break between runs
  • Was a good win in the Newcastle race, worked hard from awkward barrier (15 of 15) and raced wide without cover throughout
  • Has a decent winning strike rate of 33.33%
  • Track conditions will suit, Caulfield Cup expected to be run on a Good (3) and they have won four starts from seven on good ground

No – Green Moon Can’t Win the Caulfield Cup 2011:

  • Newcastle Cup form is scratchy, also races for the first time since then which may be a little long between runs for such a big race
  • Sees Caulfield for the first time
  • Has had just one start over the 2400 metres, when fifth at Ascot last June in a Group 2 – but Newcastle Cup was as good as being over 2300 metres
  • Barrier 17 draw, comes into 13 which is an awkward gate to start from especially if the speed is on – but they did take out Newcastle from the far outside barrier so can do it just query whether they can repeat such a gutsy effort against a better field here

Looking at the above facts and stats on Caulfield Cup Horse No #16 Green Moon certainly isn’t the best stayer in the country, but in a superstar-less field they have a chance.

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