December Draw – Will the Caulfield Cup 2011 Favourite Win for the Punters?

The question on everyone’s lips heading into the 2011 Caulfield Cup tomorrow is whether the easing favourite December Draw will salute for trainer Mark Kavanagh and the punters by winning their second elite level, or whether there will be an upset Caulfield Cup result.

December Draw

December Draw will jump from barrier nine in the 2011 Caulfield Cup if the emergencies don't gain a start

Certainly the early hype surrounding December Draw is deserved based on their excellent Australian race record of five wins from six starts since early May.

They come off a win in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 1, which is one of the traditional Caulfield Cup lead-up races producing two Caulfield Cup winners in the last 10 years.

However, there has been a slight move away from December Draw in the Caulfield Cup 2011 betting markets at Luxbet with the favourite drifting out from $2.25 to $2.50

Questions are beginning to arise over whether December Draw has the ability to race and win over the Caulfield Cup distance of 2400 metres, which he hasn’t seen before, and whether their poor record when racing in Europe will see them found out as they face a Caulfield Cup field with a record number of internationally-trained contenders.

So will December Draw emerge the Caulfield Cup winner in 2011 and give Kavanagh a nice photo for the papers to replace the horror image of Maldivian from 2007?

Below the Races.com.au team take a look at the evidence both for and against December Draw winning the Caulfield Cup, taking into consideration their form, recent runs and the history of this great handicap showdown.

December Draw – Horse Details

  • Jockey: Michael Rodd
  • Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
  • Owners: Mr R A Pegum, Mr G Towzell
  • Age: 6YO
  • Gender: Gelding
  • Breeding: by Medecis (GB) from New York (IRE)
  • Career: 22-8-3-4
  • Prizemoney: $569,772
  • Track: 1-1-0-0
  • Distance: 0-0-0-0
  • Good: 17-4-2-4
  • Dead: 5-4-1-0
  • Current Caulfield Cup Odds: $2.50 Luxbet

Why December Draw Can Become the 2011 Caulfield Cup Winner

  • They are the right sex as a gelding with five of the past 10 Caulfield Cup winners being geldings
  • Easing price is favourable, if they drift out past $2.50 in the Caulfield Cup odds this will actually work in their favour as only five Caulfield Cup favourites have been $2.50 or under in the race’s history and of these only three have gone on to win
  • Has nice form on Good ground (17-4-2-4), which is important with Caulfield set to be rated a Good (3) by Race 8
  • A Caulfield winner having won the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes (200m) at the track on September 17
  • Is the third most consistent horse based on winning percentages with a Win Rate of 36.36%; Anthony Freedman’s market drifter Lucas Cranch has the highest with 55.56% followed by emergency runner Midnight Martini (45.45%)
  • Dawn in the right barrier; came up with 11 but will move into nine if the emergencies don’t get a run, four of the past 15 Caulfield Cup winners have jumped from Barrier 9
  • Nicely weighted with 54.5kg, which included a 2kg penalty for their Naturalism Stakes win, meaning they meet the next best Caulfield Cup fancy #1 Mighty High ($9.50 Luxbet) 2.5kg better in the weights

Why December Draw Can’t Win the Caulfield Cup 2011

  • Money is coming for their rivals, which means there are doubts
  • Haven’t run over 2400 metres before and the only two Caulfield Cup winners to take out the race at their first start over the distance were Let’s Elope (1991) and Northerly (2002)
  • Face 11 rivals in the current 18-starter field to have not only run but won over the distance
  • Their pre-Australia form is questionable and #2 Drunken Sailor ($19 Luxbet), #3 Manighar ($16 Luxbet) and #10 Saptapadi ($21 Luxbet) all have more impressive European form coming into this clash
  • Would have to be the first horse in history to win the Naturalism Stakes – Caulfield Cup double in the same season; making this statistic even worse is that of the 11 Naturalism Stakes winners to go for the Caulfield Cup, Douro Valley (2nd in 2007) is the only to finish in the money

Based on the above there is plenty to like about the Caulfield Cup betting favourite and their spot at the top of the odds is deserved.

That said, December Draw are still very short in the market and there is a capacity field of genuine chances ready to take down the favourite.

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