December Draw – Will the Caulfield Cup 2011 Favourite Win for the Punters?

October 14, 2011

DEPOSIT $100 to get

$250

*In Bonus-bets

View Offers

deposit $50 bet with

$200

*In Bonus-bets

View Offers

deposit $25 to get

$75

*In Bonus-bets

View Offers

deposit $250 to get

$250

*In Bonus-bets

View Offers

December Draw – Will the Caulfield Cup 2011 Favourite Win for the Punters?

The question on everyone’s lips heading into the 2011 Caulfield Cup tomorrow is whether the easing favourite December Draw will salute for trainer Mark Kavanagh and the punters by winning their second elite level, or whether there will be an upset Caulfield Cup result.

December Draw

December Draw will jump from barrier nine in the 2011 Caulfield Cup if the emergencies don't gain a start

Certainly the early hype surrounding December Draw is deserved based on their excellent Australian race record of five wins from six starts since early May.

They come off a win in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 1, which is one of the traditional Caulfield Cup lead-up races producing two Caulfield Cup winners in the last 10 years.

However, there has been a slight move away from December Draw in the Caulfield Cup 2011 betting markets at Luxbet with the favourite drifting out from $2.25 to $2.50

Questions are beginning to arise over whether December Draw has the ability to race and win over the Caulfield Cup distance of 2400 metres, which he hasn’t seen before, and whether their poor record when racing in Europe will see them found out as they face a Caulfield Cup field with a record number of internationally-trained contenders.

So will December Draw emerge the Caulfield Cup winner in 2011 and give Kavanagh a nice photo for the papers to replace the horror image of Maldivian from 2007?

Below the Races.com.au team take a look at the evidence both for and against December Draw winning the Caulfield Cup, taking into consideration their form, recent runs and the history of this great handicap showdown.

December Draw – Horse Details

  • Jockey: Michael Rodd
  • Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
  • Owners: Mr R A Pegum, Mr G Towzell
  • Age: 6YO
  • Gender: Gelding
  • Breeding: by Medecis (GB) from New York (IRE)
  • Career: 22-8-3-4
  • Prizemoney: $569,772
  • Track: 1-1-0-0
  • Distance: 0-0-0-0
  • Good: 17-4-2-4
  • Dead: 5-4-1-0
  • Current Caulfield Cup Odds: $2.50 Luxbet

Why December Draw Can Become the 2011 Caulfield Cup Winner

  • They are the right sex as a gelding with five of the past 10 Caulfield Cup winners being geldings
  • Easing price is favourable, if they drift out past $2.50 in the Caulfield Cup odds this will actually work in their favour as only five Caulfield Cup favourites have been $2.50 or under in the race’s history and of these only three have gone on to win
  • Has nice form on Good ground (17-4-2-4), which is important with Caulfield set to be rated a Good (3) by Race 8
  • A Caulfield winner having won the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes (200m) at the track on September 17
  • Is the third most consistent horse based on winning percentages with a Win Rate of 36.36%; Anthony Freedman’s market drifter Lucas Cranch has the highest with 55.56% followed by emergency runner Midnight Martini (45.45%)
  • Dawn in the right barrier; came up with 11 but will move into nine if the emergencies don’t get a run, four of the past 15 Caulfield Cup winners have jumped from Barrier 9
  • Nicely weighted with 54.5kg, which included a 2kg penalty for their Naturalism Stakes win, meaning they meet the next best Caulfield Cup fancy #1 Mighty High ($9.50 Luxbet) 2.5kg better in the weights

Why December Draw Can’t Win the Caulfield Cup 2011

  • Money is coming for their rivals, which means there are doubts
  • Haven’t run over 2400 metres before and the only two Caulfield Cup winners to take out the race at their first start over the distance were Let’s Elope (1991) and Northerly (2002)
  • Face 11 rivals in the current 18-starter field to have not only run but won over the distance
  • Their pre-Australia form is questionable and #2 Drunken Sailor ($19 Luxbet), #3 Manighar ($16 Luxbet) and #10 Saptapadi ($21 Luxbet) all have more impressive European form coming into this clash
  • Would have to be the first horse in history to win the Naturalism Stakes – Caulfield Cup double in the same season; making this statistic even worse is that of the 11 Naturalism Stakes winners to go for the Caulfield Cup, Douro Valley (2nd in 2007) is the only to finish in the money

Based on the above there is plenty to like about the Caulfield Cup betting favourite and their spot at the top of the odds is deserved.

That said, December Draw are still very short in the market and there is a capacity field of genuine chances ready to take down the favourite.

If you fancy December Draw for the Win, then back them risk free at Luxbet who are offering a great spring carnival exclusive – 2nd Place Refund Bets up to $250 on every Group 1 race.

Don’t have a Luxbet account? Join today depositing and quoting the codeword BONUSBET and get a $500 bonus bet as well as access to the best spring odds and betting options.

 

Racing fields and data are copyright 2011-2018 © Racing Australia Pty Ltd (RA) (and other parties working with it).
Racing materials, including fields, form and results, is subject to copyright which is owned by RA and other parties working with it. Full copyright notice.

Spring Racing

The Everest 2018 Ultimate Goal...

Capacity 2018 Perth Cup Field ...

Capacity 2018 Perth Cup Field Released

Ascot Racecourse in W.A. hosts one of the summer’s highlight races on New...

2018 The Everest Next Sydney R...

2018 The Everest Next Sydney Race for Viddora

Ace young South Australian trainer Lloyd Kennewell has confirmed his Group 1...

Vega Magic Injured But Still S...

Vega Magic Injured But Still Scaling The Everest 2018

A freak accident in the paddock last month has ruled the Lindsay Park-trained...

Snoopy Could Miss Wet 2017 Geo...

Snoopy Could Miss Wet 2017 George Moore Stakes

Heavy midweek rainfall in Brisbane has put the George Moore Stakes 2017 run of...

Horse Racing Today

Trapeze Artist heads up 2018 E...

Thronum to chase G1 glory afte...

Thronum to chase G1 glory after 2018 Australia Stakes win

Lindsay Park co-trainer Tom Dabernig will now step Thronum up to Group 1...

Pierata heads up final field f...

Pierata heads up final field for 2018 Magic Millions 3yo Guineas

The in-form Greg Hickman trained Pierata heads up a final field of sixteen...

Full field of 16 plus 5 emerge...

Full field of 16 plus 5 emergencies for 2018 Magic Millions 2yo Classic

The David Atkins trained Jonker will carry the number one saddlecloth in the...

Pierata chasing huge payday in...

Pierata chasing huge payday in 2018 Magic Millions 3yo Guineas

The Greg Hickman trained three year old Pierata is in the running for a huge...

Race Results

Viewed Victorious in Caulfield Cup

Race 1 Result – $101 500 AGL Renewable Energy Stakes – She’s Got Gears Wins

Race 2 – $101,500 Schiavello Plate – Avienus Wins

Race 3 – $101 500 Lavazza A Modo Mio – Linton Street Wins

Race 4 Results – $151,500 Listed Herald Sun Stakes – Strawberry Field Wins

Race Previews

2009 Caulfield Cup Barrier Draw Announced

Who Are the Top Contenders for Tomorrow’s Caulfield Cup?

Victoria Derby in sight for Onemorenomore

2009 Melbourne Cup Field

Eclipse Stakes Final Field & Preview

Fields & Form

Can Kelinni Win Sydney Cup 2013 for the Punters?

Moroney Gets into Queensland Derby 2013 Rhythm

Buffering Draws 7 – 2013 BTC Cup Final Field and Barrier Draw

SA Fillies Classic 2013 Field Released

13 two-year-olds in 2013 Champagne Classic Field