Caulfield Cup 2011 – Distance & Track Form Selections

Sunny, 22 degrees and a Good 3 track, that is what racing fans and punters can expect at Caulfield Racecourse tomorrow for 2011 Caulfield Cup Day.

With excellent conditions expected at jump time for the $2.5 million Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m), scheduled as Race 8 of 10 at 4:05pm (EDT) on Saturday, here the Races.com.au take a look at the Caulfield track, distance and Good ground form on the horses engaged in the 2011 Caulfield Cup field.

Precedence

Precedence is the only 2011 Caulfield Cup contender to have won at the track and distance previously

Predictions from track manager Jason Kerr, who has five times before prepared a Caulfield Cup track, are for the day to open with the track rated a Dead (4) before being upgraded to around a Good (3) in time for the meeting’s marquee event.

“The rail will be six metres out and it has a good cover of grass,” Kerr said.

“We put on 8mm of irrigation today (Thursday) and we’ll give it a little more tomorrow (Friday).

“The forecast (for Saturday) is for 22 degrees and for only the odd shower – we are not banking on any rain.

“We have held our past three meetings (at Caulfield) in the true rail position and the track has pulled up fantastic.

“The rail out six metes will provide a complete coverage of the used area.

“In my six years here this is as good a track for the big race as I’ve ever had.”

Caulfield Cup betting at Luxbet is led by December Draw whose faultless form down under sees them at a short, but easing price, of $2.40 in the markets.

Mark Kavanagh’s import certainly has been brilliant in Australia since debuting for the stable back in May, December Draw winning five of their six starts which most recently included the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington.

However, they go to the 2400 metres for the first time in the Caulfield Cup and only the immortals Let’s Elope and Northerly were able to win the Caulfield Cup at their first 2400 metre jump.

There’s also a few holes to be found in December Draw’s form before arriving here, which his European rivals in the Caulfield Cup field will be happy to point out.

While races aren’t won on paper, looking at the Caulfield Cup form on the field can certainly help punters make their selections.

So, December Draw will jump favourite but does his record stretch to this?

Also there are four internationals in this year’s Caulfield Cup field, five if you count German import Lucas Cranach who races in Australia for the first time on Saturday, which is also worth exploring.

Do the Luca Cuami-trained stablemates Manighar and Drunken Sailor look able to manage a Good track? Has Lucas Cranach the form to upset the favourite having acclimatised to Melbourne?

Who are the smokys in the Caulfield Cup odds with a decent enough record either at Caulfield, on good ground or over the 24 hundred to lay claims?

Below you will find the answers to all these questions and more as the Races.com.au team reveal which 2011 Caulfield Cup horses have the best Good track, Caulfield course and distance records heading into tomorrow’s clash.

2011 Caulfield Cup Good Track, Caulfield Race Records & Distance Statistics:

The Caulfield Track is predicted to be a Good (3) by Cup time on Saturday; horses with the best form on Good ground are:

  • #1 Mighty High (18-5-4-4)
  • #2 Drunken Sailor (22-6-6-2)
  • #3 Manighar (10-3-2-1)
  • #5 Lucas Cranach (5-2-1-0)
  • #6 Precedence (17-3-2-1)
  • #9 December Draw (17-4-2-4)
  • #11 Tullamore (12-3-2-2)
  • #13 Dream Pedlar (12-3-1-2)
  • #16 Green Moon (7-4-0-0)
  • #16 Southern Speed (7-2-2-1)
  • #19e Spechenka (19-7-2-0)
  • #20e Lucky Eighty Eight (9-3-1-3)

The only horse to have won at the Track & Distance is:

  • #6 Precedence (3-1-0-1)

Horses that have won over the 2400 metres are:

    • #1 Mighty High (3-1-0-1)
    • #2 Drunken Sailor (7-3-1-1)
    • #3 Manighar (8-4-1-1)
    • #4 Unusual Suspect (8-2-2-1)
    • #5 Lucas Cranach (7-4-1-0)
    • #6 Precedence (4-2-0-1)
    • #8 Shootoff (1-1-0-0)
    • #10 Saptapadi (4-1-0-0)
    • #11 Tullamore (5-2-1-0)
    • #12 Absolutely (1-1-0-0)
    • #14 Niwot (2-1-1-0)
    • #19e Spechenka (6-3-0-0)

Gallopers that have previously won at Caulfieldare:

  • #6 Precedence (12-1-3-1)
  • #9 December Draw (1-1-0-0)
  • #22e Midnight Martini (5-1-0-0)

 

Considering these statistics it looks as though:

  • John Moore’s Hong Kong galloper Mighty High has genuine claims – They are a Caulfield Cup market firmer in form $13 to $9.50 at Luxbet, have drawn the rails so ride from Darren Beadman needs to be timed right and they are the 57kg topweight, but carried 59kg capably last-start when fourth to last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Descarado in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m)
  • Precedence makes a nice exotic selection – Bart Cummings’ galloper paying $41 through Luxbet, Cummings after his eighth Caulfield Cup victory and while the form on Zabeel six-year-old Precedence leaves a lot to be desired of late, a gear change and the confidence of his trainer could see them score their first turf triumph since the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) last October
  • The likes of the Anthony Freedman-trained Lucas Cranach ($10 Luxbet), Gai Waterhouse’s Brisbane Cup winner Tullamore ($17 Luxbet) and last year’s Caulfield Cup fifth placegetter Manighar ($18 Luxbet) cannot be discounted

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