2011 Caulfield Cup Form Facts & Analysis

Spring Carnival Racing steps it up a notch this Saturday with a supercharged staying showdown scheduled for the Caulfield Cup 2011.

With a capacity field of 18 starters plus four emergencies engaged to face off, checking out the Caulfield Cup form guide facts and statistics is the only way to know which horses have the best chance of success.

The $2.5 million Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m) is scheduled as Caulfield Race 8 at 4:04pm (EDT)on Saturday and has drawn an interesting field of local and international gallopers, each coming into the race off very different preparations.

December Draw

December Draw is the deserved 2011 Caulfield Cup favourite based on their form in Australia

Pronounced favourite to emerge the Caulfield Cup winner this year is the in-form European import December Draw.

The Mark Kavanagh-trained son of Medecis has enjoyed a stunning career in Australia winning five of their six starts since their first run here back in early May.

Whether there is something in the air down under or maybe Kavanagh has a magic touch, December Draw has improved remarkably on their European form as they had won just three of their 16 starts before joining Kavanagh in Melbourne.

In the current Caulfield Cup betting markets at Luxbet December Draw is the clear top elect at a quote of $2.50.

Kavanagh knows that December Draw is progressive and believes they will step up to the 2400 metres without issue on Saturday, but he is also wary of the competition.

Following December Draw in the Caulfield Cup odds at a quote of $9.50 is market firmer, the John Moore-trained Hong Kong raider Mighty High.

Due to get the inside run from barrier one with Darren Beadman engaged, Mighty High is the first internationally-trained horse to be allocated the Caulfield Cup top-weight and will carry 57.5kg.

On the next line of betting at a drifting price of $12 is Anthony Freedman’s imported Group winning German galloper Lucas Cranach.

Due to be cleared to run in the Caulfield Cup field after minor issues with a hoof abscess, Lucas Cranach has plenty of supporters and is drawn ideally in gate three but have blown out in the odds from $7.50 to $12 at Luxbet over the past two days.

Meanwhile, there are four overseas-trained raiders in Saturday’s clash that Kavanagh knows have form around his horse including the Luca Cumani-trained stablemates Manighar and Drunken Sailor, and Brian Ellison’s well-backed Saptapadi.

“We haven’t had a chance to have a good look at those guys while December Draw’s form is quite exposed,” Kavanagh said.

“If you put December Draw back into England and those guys next to him, they would rate a long way in front of him, a long way.

“He would probably be at Wangaratta on Caulfield Cup Day.”

Still, with form going into the Caulfield Cup like December Draw’s, Kavanagh still believes he has the horse to beat.

“What I do know is that December Draw’s Australian form is fabulous, he’s a Group 1 winner last start, but those other guys were 20 lengths in front of him,” Kavanagh said.

“The Freedmans’ horse, Lucas Cranach, has been really boomed up.”

So which horse will have their name in the papers on Sunday morning and will you have had your money on them?

Committed to providing our readers with the most informative and useful spring betting previews and guides, the Races.com.au team have gone through all of the Caulfield Cup field, form and facts putting together the below guide to help you with your Caulfield Cup selections.

Caulfield Cup 2011 Field Statistics & Form Guide Analysis

  • #5 Lucas Cranach ($12 Luxbet) boasts the best Win Rate of the field with 55.56%
  • The next highest winning percentages belong to emergency runner #22 Midnight Martini (45.45%), race favourite #9 December Draw (36.36%) and #14 Niwot (35%)
  • Horses with the most consistent Place Rates are Hong Kong raider #1 Mighty High (70%), #9
    December Draw
    (68.18%), #4 Lucas Cranach (66.67%) and #11 Tullamore (63.65%)
  • Three last-start winners are engaged in the race with #9 December Draw (2000m, Flemington, 02/10/2011), #13 Dream Pedlar (2040m, Moonee Valley, 30/09/2011) and #16 Green Moon (2300m, Newcastle, 15/09/2011)
  • Last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Descarado jumped from barrier 15; this year their stablemate #11 Tullamore ($17 Luxbet) drew gate 15 but without the emergencies gaining a start it will be #13 Dream Pedlar ($81 Luxbet) jumping from barrier 15
  • Race favourite #9 December Draw came up with gate 11 at the Caulfield Cup draw but will move into barrier nine if the emergencies scratch out; barrier nine has actually produced the most Caulfield Cup winners in the past 15 years with four the most recent being Railings (2005)
  • The past two Caulfield Cup winners didn’t place in their final lead-up run, which broke an 11-year trend, with last year’s winner Descarado having run 14th in the Turnbull Stakes and 2009 winner Viewed running seventh, also in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m); this year #18 Southern Speed ($14 Luxbet) and #6 Precedence ($31 Luxbet) come off unplaced runs behind winner December Draw in the Turnbull having run fourth and 10th respectively
  • #6 Precedence is prepared by the most successful Caulfield Cup winning trainer of all time, Bart Cummings  who has taken out the race seven times before, most recently with Viewed (2009)
  • Other Caulfield Cup 2011 horses prepared by former Caulfield Cup winning trainers are #11 Tullamore (Gai Waterhouse), #14 Niwot (John Hawkes, who now trains in partnership with his sons Michael and Wayne)
  • #3 Manighar ($18 Luxbet) will be ridden by four-time Caulfield Cup winning jockey Damien Oliver, who is out to equal Scobie Breasley’s record of five wins this weekend
  • Other gallopers whose jockeys have previously won the Caulfield Cup are #2 Drunken Sailor (Dwayne Dunn), #4 Unusual Supsect (Nash Rawiller), #8 Shootoff (Kerrin McEvoy and #12 Absolutely (Brad Rawiller)

Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Caulfield Cup betting tips to be published shortly.

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2011 Caulfield Cup Form Guide & Field

Caulfield Race 8 – 15/10/2011

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Age/Sex Days API Career Win% Place% Last 6
1. MIGHTY HIGH J Moore Darren Beadman 1 57 6yoG 7 $77,886 20: 6 4 4 30.00% 70.00% 331×34
2. DRUNKEN SAILOR L M Cumani Dwayne Dunn 18 56.5 7yoG 49 $16,712 40: 11 9 4 27.50% 60.00% 461313
3. MANIGHAR L M Cumani Damien Oliver 5 56.5 6yoG 55 $42,419 19: 6 3 3 31.58% 63.16% 3×3484
4. UNUSUAL SUSPECT M C Kent Nash Rawiller 7 56.5 8yoH 6 $22,204 58: 9 8 6 15.52% 39.66% 215×40
5. LUCAS CRANACH Anthony Freedman Corey Brown 3 56 5yoH 83 $16,999 9: 5 1 0 55.56% 66.67% 1×4215
6. PRECEDENCE J B Cummings Steven Arnold 20 56 6yoG 13 $27,557 30: 6 4 1 20.00% 36.67% 25×670
7. HAWK ISLAND C J Waller Glyn Schofield 14 55.5 7yoG 14 $20,132 39: 10 8 2 25.64% 51.28% Fx6022
8. SHOOTOFF G A Rogerson Kerrin Mc Evoy 16 55 4yoH 14 $29,000 20: 4 1 2 20.00% 35.00% 141002
9. DECEMBER DRAW M A Kavanagh Michael Rodd 11 54.5 6yoG 13 $25,899 22: 8 3 4 36.36% 68.18% 1×2111
10. SAPTAPADI Brian Ellison Mark Zahra 6 54.5 6yoG 7 $6,674 13: 1 2 1 7.69% 30.77% x75558
11. TULLAMORE Ms G Waterhouse Craig Newitt 15 54.5 5yoG 14 $17,113 22: 5 6 3 22.73% 63.64% 421838
12. ABSOLUTELY M C Kent Brad Rawiller 22 54 4yoM 13 $46,600 10: 1 3 2 10.00% 60.00% 21×566
13. DREAM PEDLAR T W Blacker Chris Symons 19 53.5 7yoG 15 $15,257 44: 9 8 6 20.45% 52.27% 5×0061
14. NIWOT “M, W and J Hawkes Dean Yendall 21 53.5 7yoG 13 $22,016 20: 7 4 1 35.00% 60.00% 21×072
15. DOMESKY M C Kent Brenton Avdulla 9 53 4yoG 6 $16,605 16: 2 3 4 12.50% 56.25% 9×5737
16. GREEN MOON Robert Hickmott Nicholas Hall 17 53 5yoH 30 $18,883 12: 4 1 0 33.33% 41.67% 5×8921
17. MACEDONIAN P G Moody Luke Nolen 10 53 6yoG 7 $11,318 26: 5 1 4 19.23% 38.46% 5×0067
18. SOUTHERN SPEED L Macdonald and A Gluyas Craig Williams 4 52.5 4yoM 13 $32,441 11: 3 2 1 27.27% 54.55% x00424
19. SPECHENKA Ben Ahrens Michael Walker 13 53 6yoG 14 $11,548 33: 11 3 1 33.33% 45.45% 155309
20. LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT M Ellerton and S Zahra Michelle Payne 8 52.5 6yoG 7 $12,473 18: 6 2 3 33.33% 61.11% 5×3739
21. ANUDJAWUN S A Dwyer Chris Symons 12 52.5 6yoG 7 $5,987 17: 1 5 4 5.88% 58.82% x00445
22. MIDNIGHT MARTINI M A Kavanagh Not Notified 2 52.5 4yoM 7 $15,653 11: 5 1 0 45.45% 54.55% 115814

*Form Guide Credit Ladbrokes.com.au