The countdown is on to the 2011 Thousand Guineas, which is schedule to jump at 3:40pm (EDT) today as Caulfield Race 6, and in anticipation of the fillies’ classic the Races.com.au team take a look at the current track conditions and tips.
Currently the Caulfield track is rated a Dead (4) and with fine weather in Melbourne, the ground is going to be firm for today’s feature meeting.
Atlantic Jewel is the 2011 Thousand Guineas odds-on favourite
With the rail in the true position and a penetrometer reading of 5.23, savvy punters will be checking the Thousand Guineas 2011 field and form to discover fillies in the race capable of running well in these conditions to back through Luxbet.
Thousand Guineas Day – Caulfield Racecourse Track Conditions:
- Weather: Fine
- Track Condition: Dead (4)
- Penetrometer: 5.23
- Rail: Rail in the True Position
Mark Kavanagh’s progressive filly Atlantic Jewel is the punters’ elect in the Thousand Guineas 2011 odds at Luxbet, currently at a short odds-on price of $1.50.
Jumping from barrier four of 11 with the early scratching of #7 Manhattan Maid, Atlantic Jewel has had one run and win on Dead ground and is two-from-two on a Good track.
At this morning’s Caulfield Cup 2011 Barrier Draw, where his red-hot favourite December Draw drew barrier 11, Kavanagh said he was looking forward to the Thousand Guineas and was excited over Atlantic Jewel’s chances.
“She’s continued to improve and the experience has been good,” he said.
Other 2011 Thousand Guineas Fillies with a good Dead Track Record include:
- #1 Mosheen ($4.80 Luxbet) – Dead (5-2-1-1), record includes her emphatic three length win over fellow Thousand Guineas rival Bliss Street ($19 Luxbet) in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) at Flemington on October 2 which was on a Dead (5) track
- #2 Hallowell Belle ($12 Luxbet) – Dead (5-0-4-1), hasn’t won on Dead ground but has four second place finishes and a third from five attempts
- #4 Cute Emily ($31 Luxbet) – Dead (3-1-0-0), odds on Peter Moody’s Choisir filly have drifted out from $26 to $31, surprising considering she ran second in the Group 2 Bill Stutt Stakes over the mile last-start in an open-sex race and has won on a Dead (4) at Caulfield before
- #6 Celebrity Girl ($26 Luxbet) – Dead (3-2-0-1), another drifter in the markets, Kavanagh’s second Thousand Guineas hope looks over in the odds considering she ran third to Mosheen and Bliss Street in the Edward Manifold last start and she has two Dead ground victories
Kavanagh was quick to give Celebrity Girl credit and believed she was a much better chance than her price suggested.
“I really believe she is an excellent Each Way chance,” he said.
“I’d be taking her in the Quinella.”
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