The 2011 Caulfield Guineas on Saturday has been one of the most talked about and bet on editions of the three-year-olds’ classic in many years with a crack eight-horse field featuring multiple Group 1 winners and a few untapped stars in the making, and below the Races.com.au crew have the best Caulfield Guineas form analysis and betting tips.
Due to jump at 3:20pm (EDT) as Caulfield Race 7, the $1 million Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) is the headline event on a bumper nine-race programme that also includes Australian Horse of the Year Black Caviar running first-up in the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes.
Caulfield Guineas betting at Australia’s premier online bookmaker Luxbet is really starting to heat up with Peter Snowden’s dual Group 1 winner Helmet the well-supported $2.40 favourite.
Can Helmet add a third elite level jewel to his already glittering crown and salute for the punters? Or is one of his very impressive rivals ready to hit their peak and claim an upset Caulfield Guineas 2011 result?
While the 2011 Caulfield Guineas odds at Luxbet will tell you that money is also coming in for the talented but hapless Smart Missile ($3.30), prices on all the other Caulfield Guineas contenders are drifting meaning there could be great value in backing a longer-priced hopeful such as Golden Rose winner Manawanui ($5.50) or up-and-coming grey Chase The Rainbow ($8).
The best way to bet is to place well-informed wagers, which is where the 2011 Caulfield Guineas form guide and betting history comes in.
Know the horses in the Caulfield Guineas field inside and out, discover which horses have the best strike rate and form at the track and distance, and see what the race stats and facts reveal before placing your bets.
This all sounds like hard work right? That’s where Races.com.au. come in. We have done the research, done the form analysis and done the Caulfield Guineas tipping for you.
All you need to do is read our comprehensive Caulfield Guineas form and betting guide below and then head to Luxbet and lock in our selections, or the ones you have come up with having improved your race knowledge, at the best prices in the country.
2011 Caulfield Guineas Form & Betting Analysis:
- #1 Manawanui ($5.50 Luxbet) boasts the best Win Rate of the field with 83.33% and a 100% Place Rate, they also shoot for their sixth win on the trot, followed by #2 Helmet (62.50%)
- #2 Helmet ($2.40 Luxbet) and #5 Specter ($26 Luxbet) also have a flawless Place Rate of 100%
- Last year’s Caulfield Guineas winner Anacheeva jumped from barrier one with Luke Nolen in the mount; this year #6 Secret Hills ($34 Luxbet) has the inside running from gate one while Nolen has the ride on #7 Huegill ($19 Luxbet)
- Anacheeva won the Caulfield Guineas Prelude leading up to their Guineas success 12 months ago, and #2 Helmet will be vying for the same winning double this year
- Raiders from NSW and QLD have won eight of the past 14 Caulfield Guineas, meaning history is against the Victorian horses – #4 Chase The Rainbow, #5 Specter, #6 Secret Hills, #7 Huegill and #8 General Offer – and #1 Manawanui, #2 Helmet and #3 Smart Missile have the location advantage
- Colts have the best Caulfield Guineas record in the last 10 years with seven victories; the only non-colts this year are geldings #1 Manawanui and #6 Secret Hills
- History is against #3 Smart Missile based on their last-start 10th in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes as the only Caulfield Guineas winner to finish worse than fourth in their lead-up run in the past 20 years was Econsul (2004)
- Thirteen Caulfield Guineas winners in the past two decades have jumped from barriers 1 – 4; this year the lucky gallopers drawn on the inside are #6 Secret Hills (1), #3 Smart Missile (2), #1 Manawanui (3) and #7 Huegill (4)
- Only three Caulfield Guineas winners in the past 10 years have jumped at odds longer than $7.50; horses under this price this year are #2 Helmet ($2.40 Luxbet), #3 Smart Missile ($3.30 Luxbet) and #1 Manawanui ($5.50 Luxbet)
- No horse in the Caulfield Guineas field has won at the track and distance
- The only horses with form over the 1600 metres are #2 Helmet (1-1-0-0) and #4 Chase The Rainbow (1-1-0-0)
- Horses that have raced at Caulfield previously are #2 Helmet (1-1-0-0), #3 Smart Missile (1-0-0-0), #4 Chase The Rainbow (1-0-0-0), #5 Specter (1-0-0-1), #6 Secret Hills (2-0-1-0), #7 Huegill (1-0-0-1) and #8 General Offer (2-0-0-1)
- Caulfield Racecourse is likely to be rated Good come Race 7 and horses that have won on Good ground are #1 Manawanui (1-1-0-0), #2 Helmet (4-3-0-1), #4 Chase The Rainbow (2-2-0-0), #7 Huegill (1-1-0-0)
While Smart Missile has talent and claims, their perpetual poor luck and historical disadvantages has us questioning their ability to upset, so based on the above, the Races.com.au team are tipping an upset but with Manawanui to win.
Races.com.au Caulfield Guineas 2011 Tips & Selections:
- Caulfield Guineas Trifecta Tip: #1 Manwanui from #2 Helmet and #3 Smart Missile
- First Four Selection: #4 Chase The Rainbow
- Best Roughie Pick: #7 Huegill
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2011 Caulfield Guineas Field & Form Guide
Caulfield Race 7 – 08/10/2011*
|1.||MANAWANUI||R T Leemon||Glyn Schofield||3||56.5||3yoG||14||$156,680||6: 5 0 1||83.33%||100.00%||11×111|
|2.||HELMET||Peter Snowden||Kerrin Mc Evoy||8||56.5||3yoC||14||$111,944||8: 5 0 3||62.50%||100.00%||11×331|
|3.||SMART MISSILE||A J Cummings||Corey Brown||2||56.5||3yoC||14||$103,230||5: 3 1 0||60.00%||80.00%||x1x120|
|4.||CHASE THE RAINBOW||R G Hore-lacy||Dean Yendall||7||56.5||3yoC||8||$52,938||5: 3 1 0||60.00%||80.00%||01121|
|5.||SPECTER||Anthony Freedman||Nicholas Hall||6||56.5||3yoC||14||$27,544||4: 2 1 1||50.00%||100.00%||1×213|
|6.||SECRET HILLS||M G Price||Craig Newitt||1||56.5||3yoG||14||$22,754||6: 2 1 2||33.33%||83.33%||x11332|
|7.||HUEGILL||P G Moody||Luke Nolen||4||56.5||3yoC||17||$10,222||4: 2 0 1||50.00%||75.00%||3×511|
|8.||GENERAL OFFER||J G Symons and S Laxon||Danny Nikolic||5||56.5||3yoC||14||$2,578||8: 1 1 2||12.50%||50.00%||134×53|
Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au