The drawcard showdown at Flemington’s Melbourne Cup Preview Day this Sunday is the Turnbull Stakes 2011and here the Races.com.au team provide the best Turnbull Stakes betting tips and form guide analysis to get our readers in the winners’ stall at the bookies.
Scheduled to run as Flemington Race 7 at 2:05pm (local time), the $500,000 Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) field currently features 13 gallopers after the early scratching of #10 At First Sight.
The Robert Hickmott-trained Spring Cups fancy At First Sight has also been withdrawn from tonight’s $200,000 Group 3 JRA Cup (2040m) at Moonee Valley.
With a baker’s dozen of Turnbull Stakes horses still in contention, there is plenty to consider before placing bets on the race at Luxbet.
Turnbull Stakes odds are currently lead by the 2011 Caulfield Cup favourite December Draw, Mark Kavanagh’s Flemington track specialist at a firming price of $3.
With a classy field of rivals including Michael Moroney’s impressive import Glass Harmonium, last-start Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes winner Rekindled Interest and in-form mare Southern Speed all equal $7 second elects, December Draw must put in a career-best run to win this and salute for the punters.
So will it be December Draw’s name in the paper on Monday morning? Or will there be an upset Turnbull Stakes result?
Turnbull Stakes history is against December Draw as no favourite has won the race since it became a Group 1 race back in 2006.
In fact, three of the past five Turnbull Stakes winners have been at $14 or better in the betting bringing the double-figure roughies into contention.
Committed to providing our readers with the best Spring Carnival betting tips and race previews, the Races.com.au crew have trawled through the historical data, race and horse statistics and done the Turnbull Stakes form guide analysis for you and come up with our top selections.
Turnbull Stakes 2011 Form Guide Facts & Betting Analysis
- Last year’s Turnbull Stakes winner Zipping jumped from barrier six with Nicholas Hall in the mount; this year #11 Raffaello ($81 Luxbet) is drawn in gate six and #5 Linton ($10 Luxbet) will be ridden by Hall
- Zipping came off a fifth place finish in the Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes; this year’s Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes fifth placegetter isn’t backing up in the Turnbull but #8 Rekindled Interest (1st), #2 Unusual Suspect (4th) and #5 Linton (6th) come through the Dato
- #3 Playing God ($14 Luxbet) boasts the best Win Rate of the field with 35.29% followed by #1 Efficient (33.33%) and #13 December Draw (33.33%)
- There are three last-start winner looking for back-to-back wins with #8 Rekindled Interest ($7 Luxbet), #9 Extra Zero ($41 Luxbet) and #13 December Draw ($3 Luxbet)
- Four and six-year-olds share the best winning percentage in the past 10 years with four wins each; horses the right age this year are #3 Playing God (4YO), #4 Precedence (6YO), #6 Shamrocker (4YO), #7 Glass Harmonium (6YO), #8 Rekindled Interest (4YO), #12 Absolutely (4YO), #13 December Draw (6YO) and #14 Southern Speed (4YO)
- Geldings have won the most editions of the Turnbull in the past decade with six winners being of this sex; geldings this year are #1 Efficient, #4 Precedence, #5 Linton, #8 Rekindled Interest, #9 Extra Zero, #13 December Draw
- Combining the above two stats, Turnbull Stakes horses that are the right Age & Sex to win are #4 Precedence, #8 Rekindled Interest and #13 December Draw
- The current weather in Melbourne suggest the Flemington track will be on the soft side and go from Dead to Slow rated before Turnbull Stakes jump time, no horses have won on a Slow Track but on Dead ground the best performers are #1 Efficient (7-2-0-0), #4 Precedence (7-3-0-0), #6 Shamrocker (6-2-0-2), #8 Rekindled Interest (4-3-1-0), #11 Raffaello (13-5-1-2), #13 December Draw (4-3-1-0)
- Horses to have won over the Track & Distance are #4 Precedence (2-1-0-0), #11 Raffaello (2-1-0-1), #13 December Draw (2-2-0-0)
After considering all the data and form above, the Races.com.au Turnbull Stakes Tips are:
- To Win: #8 Rekindled Interest – Rated Special to Win at $7 through Luxbet
- Place Bets: #13 December Draw, #4 Precedence and #6 Shamrocker
- Roughie Inclusion: #Raffaello – $81 to Win and $19.82 to Place through Luxbet
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Turnbull Stakes Field & Form Guide 2011
Flemington Race 7 – 02/10/2011
|1.||EFFICIENT||Robert Hickmott||Steven King||13||57.5||8yoG||15||$216,835||21: 7 0 0||33.33%||33.33%||x591x0|
|2.||UNUSUAL SUSPECT||M C Kent||Luke Nolen||4||56.5||8yoH||22||$22,593||57: 9 8 6||15.79%||40.35%||6215×4|
|3.||PLAYING GOD||N D Parnham||Steven Parnham||5||56.5||4yoH||15||$60,084||17: 6 4 3||35.29%||76.47%||22×245|
|4.||PRECEDENCE||J B Cummings||Steven Arnold||7||56.5||6yoG||15||$28,508||29: 6 4 1||20.69%||37.93%||025×67|
|5.||LINTON||Robert Hickmott||Not Notified||2||56.5||5yoG||22||$52,293||15: 3 2 4||20.00%||60.00%||923×76|
|6.||SHAMROCKER||D T O’brien||Damien Oliver||12||56||4yoM||15||$131,059||15: 4 2 2||26.67%||53.33%||312×80|
|7.||GLASS HARMONIUM||M D Moroney||Kerrin Mc Evoy||1||55.5||6yoH||15||$33,760||18: 4 4 2||22.22%||55.56%||231224|
|8.||REKINDLED INTEREST||J T Conlan||Dwayne Dunn||10||55.5||4yoG||22||$45,220||10: 3 1 0||30.00%||40.00%||15×241|
|9.||EXTRA ZERO||D A Hayes||Hugh Bowman||9||55||5yoG||8||$27,827||27: 3 5 1||11.11%||33.33%||08×721|
|10.||AT FIRST SIGHT||Robert Hickmott||Nicholas Hall||11||54.5||5yoH||15||$66,052||10: 1 3 1||10.00%||50.00%||45×062|
|11.||RAFFAELLO||P F Ryan||Dean Yendall||6||54.5||7yoH||8||$11,445||47: 9 3 6||19.15%||38.30%||x0x003|
|12.||ABSOLUTELY||M C Kent||Corey Brown||14||54.5||4yoM||22||$50,667||9: 1 3 2||11.11%||66.67%||321×56|
|13.||DECEMBER DRAW||M A Kavanagh||Michael Rodd||8||54.5||6yoG||15||$12,727||21: 7 3 4||33.33%||66.67%||11×211|
|14.||SOUTHERN SPEED||L Macdonald and A Gluyas||Craig Williams||3||52.5||4yoM||15||$33,435||10: 3 2 1||30.00%||60.00%||3×0042|
*Form Guide Credit Ladbrokes.com.au