Trainer Bjorn Baker is snug about the chances of...
The headline event on a bumper Caulfield race programme this Saturday is the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes 2011, and to help punters find the value in this elite level, the Races.com.au team have done the form come up with the best Sir Rupert Clarke betting analysis and tips.
Scheduled to jump a Caulfield Race 6 at 3:40pm (local) the $350,000 Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) has drawn a smart field of 17 genuine gallopers, only three of which are at single figure odds to win through Luxbet.
Smart Missile is the easing favourite out from $3.30 to $3.60, the boom three-year-old with work to do from the extreme outside gate.
More sensation surrounds their Melbourne debut with a jockey change to come following the hospitalisation of Glen Boss who was sadly aboard Crystal Lily when the 2010 Golden Slipper winner passed away from a suspected heart attack during a track gallop at Flemington on Friday morning.
Following Smart Missile in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes 2011 Luxbet odds are Rob Heathcote’s Queensland hero Woorim ($4.60) and Peter Snowden’s 58kg topweight Pinwheel ($9).
The rest of the contenders are at very generous prices with the likes of 2010 Golden Rose winner Toorak Toff ($15), triple Group 1 hero Yosei ($31), last-start Sebring Sprint winner Master Of Design ($17) seemingly over the odds.
That’s what the betting markets say, but what does the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes form guide reveal?
We know that races aren’t won on paper, they are won on the track, but every smart punter is also aware of the winning strike rate of betting based on statistics as opposed to ‘gut-feeling’ wagers.
Which Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes horses have the best chance of winning based on the form? What does the race’s recent history reveal in regards to age, jockey and barrier stats?
Below the Races.com.au team answer all of these questions and more, providing the best facts and figures to help you place the winning wager on the big race tomorrow, as well as revealing our exclusive Form Guide Provided Betting Tips.
Races.com.au Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes 2011 Form Facts & Tips
- Race favourite #13 Smart Missile is looking to become the sixth three-year-old since 1975 (out of 18 that have run) to win the race, the first since Exceed And Excel (2003)
- #13 Smart Missile is one of just three contenders prepared by a former Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winning trainer (Anthony Cummings – Turrfontein 2009), along with the Rick Hore-Lacy (Canny Lass 1986) trained stablemates #4 Toorak Toff and #8 Pinnacles
- Smart Missile also boasts the best Win Rate of the field, an impressive 75%
- The next best Winning Percentages belong to #11 Blackie (57.14%), #10 Testascana (52.94%) and #14 Dreamaway (54.55%)
- There are four last-start winners in the field with #2 Woorim, #9 Silver Grecian, #10 Testascana and #12 Master Of Design
- Horses racing third-up have an excellent record with the past six Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes runners all having their third run back from a spell, #13 Smart Missile is the sole third-up starter in this year’s race
- In the past 10 years 4&5YO’s share the record of most successful age group in the race with four wins each; there are four four-year-olds in this year’s race (#4 Toorak Toff, #6 Yosei, #11 Blackie, #14 Dreamaway) and three five-year-olds (#9 Silver Grecian, #10 Testascana, #15 Majestic Music)
- Last year’s Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winner Response was ridden by Craig Williams from barrier five
- Craig Williams rides #4 Toorak Toff this year while #2 Woorim is drawn in lucky gate five
- Other horses to be ridden by a former Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winning jockey are #1 Pinwheel (Kerrin McEvoy) and #12 Master Of Design (Damien Oliver)
- Response was the seventh mare since 1975 to win the feature; this year there are three looking to become the eighth with #6 Yosei, #14 Dreamaway and #15 Majestic Music
- #1 Pinwheel (58kg), #2 Woorim (57.5kg), #3 Dao Dao (56.5kg) and #4 Toorak Toff (54.6kg) all face the task of becoming the first horse since Test Rossa (58.5kg) in 2000 to carry more than 55.5kg to Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes victory
Based on the above the Races.com.au 2011 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Betting Selections are:
- #13 Smart Missile from #4 Toorak Toff, #10 Testascana and #2 Woorim
So get in on the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes betting action at Luxbet today for the guaranteed best odds on our selections, or your own exclusive tips.
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Sir Rupert Clarke 2011 Form Guide
Caulfield Race 6 – 24/09/2011
|1.||PINWHEEL||Peter Snowden||Kerrin Mc Evoy||8||58||6yoG||14||$32,896||25: 10 8 3||40.00%||84.00%||331314|
|2.||WOORIM||R L Heathcote||Damian Browne||5||57.5||6yoG||14||$19,289||31: 9 6 3||29.03%||58.06%||451711|
|3.||DAO DAO||“M, W and J Hawkes||Dwayne Dunn||14||56.5||8yoG||140||$52,272||27: 7 8 3||25.93%||66.67%||32708x|
|4.||TOORAK TOFF||R G Hore-lacy||Craig Williams||7||56.5||4yoH||21||$81,463||13: 5 1 0||38.46%||46.15%||45x0x5|
|5.||DANZYLUM||R D Griffiths||Luke Currie||15||55.5||8yoG||14||$10,146||69: 13 9 8||18.84%||43.48%||68×036|
|6.||YOSEI||S J Webb||Michelle Payne||2||55.5||4yoM||21||$55,905||16: 4 1 1||25.00%||37.50%||0x6010|
|7.||LUEN YAT FOREVER||P G Moody||Ben Melham||13||55||6yoG||28||$31,025||33: 12 8 2||36.36%||66.67%||9290×4|
|8.||PINNACLES||R G Hore-lacy||Chris Symons||6||54.5||8yoG||7||$14,643||57: 10 8 6||17.54%||42.11%||x52512|
|9.||SILVER GRECIAN||J Moore||Darren Beadman||4||54.5||5yoG||76||$23,338||12: 4 0 1||33.33%||41.67%||99×751|
|10.||TESTASCANA||P G Moody||Luke Nolen||16||54.5||5yoG||28||$15,266||17: 9 4 1||52.94%||82.35%||521111|
|11.||BLACKIE||M C Kent||Nicholas Hall||12||53.5||4yoG||14||$21,202||7: 4 1 0||57.14%||71.43%||1117×2|
|12.||MASTER OF DESIGN||David Payne||Damien Oliver||10||53.5||6yoH||14||$24,101||12: 6 1 2||50.00%||75.00%||x1x191|
|13.||SMART MISSILE||A J Cummings||Glen Boss||17||53||3yoC||14||$129,038||4: 3 1 0||75.00%||100.00%||1x1x12|
|14.||DREAMAWAY||D Binaisse||William Pike||9||53||4yoM||21||$67,914||11: 6 2 0||54.55%||72.73%||1111×8|
|15.||MAJESTIC MUSIC||L Macdonald and A Gluyas||Craig Newitt||3||53||5yoM||21||$33,284||25: 6 5 2||24.00%||52.00%||4452×0|
|16.||GOLD SALUTE||Mark Riley||Michael Walker||11||53||8yoG||21||$17,594||32: 8 4 4||25.00%||50.00%||700×80|
|17.||JUNGLE RULER||P J White||Dean Yendall||1||53||8yoH||21||$8,159||96: 18 11 11||18.75%||41.67%||060070|
*Form Guide Credit Ladbrokes.com.au
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