While Peter Moody’s last-start winning mare King’s Rose has opened the short-priced favourite to win the 2011 Stocks Stakes, one of the key support races on the bumper Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes Day card at Moonee Valley on Saturday, looking at the historical facts and stats rival Pinker Pinker emerges as a genuine contender not to dismiss.
In a brilliant Australian race debut on August 27 at Caulfield, Group 1 winning Kiwi star King’s Rose impressively ran down and defeated Heart Of Dreams in the Group 2 Memsie Stakes (1400m).
Undefeated over the mile, including a win in the Group 1 NZ 1000 Guineas last November, King’s Rose is being tipped to improve again second-up in the $200,000 Group 2 Stocks Stakes (1600m).
For the Memsie, King’s Rose jumped from gate 11 of 13 with Luke Nolen in the mount, Nolen continuing his association with the promising spring star in the Stocks where they should get a few more favours from barrier 7 of 14.
There is certainly a lot to like about the 2011 Cox Plate-bound King’s Rose, especially as she steps back from open company to a mares-only on Saturday.
King’s Rose has, understandably, opened at the top of the Stocks Stakes odds.
She is now paying $2.70, in from $2.80, at Luxbet.
Favourites, however, have a poor recent record in the Stocks Stakes with only two going on to win since the race was moved to its September date in 2000.
While the favourite certainly has the record and ability, as a last-start winner history is also against her.
The only mare coming off a victory to back up and win the Stocks Stakes in the past decade was Devil Moon in 2008.
Another last-start winner in the 2011 Stocks Stakes field that is out to break the hoodoo is the Greg Eurell-trained Pinker Pinker.
After taking out the Group 2 Let’s Elope Stakes (1400m) at Flemington last Saturday, Reset four-year-old Pinker Pinker is the Stocks Stakes betting second-elect at $4, in from $4.20, through Luxbet.
A multiple Group winner and Group 1 placed in the AJC Oaks last season, Pinker Pinker is looking to defeat a second Moody-trained mare within a week having beaten home King’s Rose’s stablemate Mid Summer Music in the Let’s Elope.
While Pinker Pinker hasn’t been to the Valley before, the step up to the mile at this stage in her prep should suit.
Also, on paper her Stocks Stakes barrier draw of 11 may look unfavourable, but wide barriers haven’t hampered recent runners in the race.
Only one Stocks Stakes winner since 2000 has jumped from barrier five or below.
In fact, six winners in the past 10 years were drawn in a double-digit gate.
The other 2011 Stocks Stakes acceptors drawn wide are Zauberin (12), Willow Creek (13) and Avienus (14) – the first two of which are $81 roughies and the third behind defending the defending champion.
The Mark Webb-trained Avienus, a Stocks Stakes market mover at Luxbet in from $26 to $16, hasn’t finished in the money since her three-length victory in the Stocks Stakes 12 months ago.
Aside from King’s Rose and Pinker Pinker, the other single-figure chances in the Stocks Stakes odds are:
- #1 Lady Lynette ($7 Luxbet) – Seven-year-old back in good form this season. Ran third in the Stocks last year, out to go two better this year from barrier six with Nicholas Hall in the mount. Has a good record at the Valley and is a Group 3 winner here over the mile so record suggests she can, as does her eye-catching fourth in the Let’s Elope where she overcame a wide gate to finish close.
- #8 Absolutley ($8) – Group 1 AJC Oaks winner last season, ran a good first-up fifth beaten just over two lengths in the Memsie after a powerful finish over the final 100 metres. Similar draw here, so she will likely get back and storm home, could be dangerous stepping up in distance here and her record at MV over 1600 metres is all place, place, place so expectation is a top three finish.
Punters out for double-figure value with their Moonee Valley Race 8 bets this Saturday may want to look at the likes of South Australian mare Southern Speed ($18) who is Group 1 placed and better than her new-season stats suggest, and the Mark Kavanagh-trained Midnight Martini ($12) by Street Cry from a Zabeel mare making her a nice miler.
Check out the latest 2011 Spotless Stocks Stakes markets below, then to jump on the odds for your favourites, head to Australia’s leading online bookmaker Luxbet.
2011 Stocks Stakes Odds
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 10/09/2011 – 4:20pm (local)
|1||LADY LYNETTE (6)||7.00|
|4||CHARLIES QUEEN (10)||51.00|
|5||PLATINUM PASSION (9)||26.00|
|6||HEAD NORTH (3)||41.00|
|7||PINKER PINKER (11)||4.00|
|9||KINGS ROSE (7)||2.70|
|10||WILLOW CREEK (13)||81.00|
|11||SOUTHERN SPEED (5)||18.00|
|13||MIDNIGHT MARTINI (1)||12.00|
*Fixed Win Odds from Luxbet and subject to change