Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
There will be two main factors in tomorrow’s Warwick Stakes, the first will be the weather conditions, just how wet the track is and how quickly it chops up in the earlier runs. The second factor will be the 1400m trip, which horses have returned fit enough and fresh enough to run the required pace.
Usually the question for horses first up is if they’ll run out the trip but that’s not something that should really come into play tomorrow.
A good portion of the field are stayers and more than a couple will be players in the Cup’s circuit later in the year.
While many may dismiss them on this basis the training style used in Australia means they’re probably worth a bit of a look.
Traditional even a two mile horse will run over a trek similar to that of the Warwick Stakes first up as they build their journey throughout their campaign..
It’s something some horses have been successful doing and on a very heavy track the 1400m is probably worth closer to a mile anyway.
It’s the age old battle of class versus fitness, some of these horses may be 1400m specialists but if they’re not top liners they could be found out by a Group 1 level stayer.
In fact looking through the field there are only a few horses which would be rated as ideally suited to the 1400m.
First is Black Piranha, a champion sprinter and winner of two Stradbroke Handicaps.
There’s a question on his form this year though and the veteran is desperate for a win in what could be his final spring campaign.
The journey is ideal but just how well he returns is yet to be seen, punters are cautious and he’s at a $12 quote with Luxbet.
Pinwheel is another who’ll love the 1400m and he has plenty of fitness on his side.
A good record, suited race and form against these first up runners puts him in a great place.
On paper he’s probably the winner and punters have recognised that, you can get $4.60 fixed for Pinwheel at Luxbet.
Triple Elegance has started seven times on the 1400m and it’s right in the middle of his ideal trip.
He’s at $6.50 fixed at Luxbet, that quote coming in as punters see how good he shapes up.
The query on him is undoubtedly the first up fitness but if he turns it on he could win by three lengths.
Ilovethiscity is another favourite on paper and on the markets with $5.00 being offered now on Luxbet.
He was passed fit by vets just minutes ago after stepping on a nail so that quote may well shorten further.
He’s another first up runner but has trialled well and is well and truly in it.
Startsmeup is fresh of Queensland success and is already in peak racing form. Sure he’s outclassed but he’s also fully fit and suited to the trek, he’ll run a race at $26 and the odd punter at Luxbet is expecting an upset.
The final horse you’d say is helped by the trek is Sacred Choice who gets up to a mile with ease.
She is also the best suited to the heavy track, in fact the more rain the better for this fish of a horse.
She won the Doncaster this year on a bottomless track and punters think she’ll get the Warwick Stakes as well with her price plummeting into $6.00 at Luxbet.
So those are the sprint types, but what of the stayers?
Hawk Island is first up since he fell over 3200m in the Sydney Cup. Naturally punters are wary but he was in amazing touch before that incident.
He’s a $51 quote and understandably, but he’s one to watch for later in the carnival.
Maluckyday is the obvious one, 2010 Melbourne Cup runner up and on target to go one better this year.
He was average in the autumn but is wound up for the spring, he’ll be coming late but not close enough for punters at a $17 quote.
Shootoff mixed it at group 1 open level as a three year old but that was over 2000m and beyond.
He’s not an out and out stayer though and he could still have the legs first up to run a race over 1400m.
He’s yet to be specked at big $26 odds but wouldn’t be surprised if that changes tomorrow.
These are specialists which will be facing the stayers in what shapes as a fascinating clash in the 2011 Warwick Stakes.
What will prevail, will it be sheer class, the distance specialist, the track specialists or just the best ride of the day?
We won’t know that until tomorrow but you can get your Warwick Stakes bets on now at Luxbet.
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