It is an obvious tip but one all the experts are making, Black Caviar to win the $1 million Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) at the Royal Randwick’s AJC Derby Day on Saturday.
Peter Moody’s irrefutable sprint champion, Black Caviar graces the Sydney turf for the first time on Saturday and the expectancy over her appearance has the fans and punters at Randwick in a frenzy.
“Hero horses and people’s horses come along very rarely in racing,” said the Australian Turf Club’s CEO Darren Pearce.
“Everyone is getting on board the Black Caviar express.”
Black Caviar is the world’s best thoroughbred, unbeaten in her 11 starts to date, a freak of the turf that seems to have no issue in obliterating her rivals time and time again.
Still, the 2011 TJ Smith Stakes has drawn a final field of 11 in total with the brave connections of 10 other hopefuls still keen to take on Black Caviar – even if they will be running for second.
“You obviously get sick of running second to her,” said jockey Corey Brown who is aboard TJ Smith Stakes rival Shoot Out on Saturday.
“But she’s just the perfect racehorse.”
Her firming odds-on price of $1.24 to win not only her 12th on the trot but her fifth at Group 1 level confirms just how close to a sure thing Black Caviar is on Saturday.
The punters are also still keen to back the queen even at her short price.
To win off Black Caviar – well it’s the same as it was with Phar Lap really.
Sportingbet Australia has reported to have taken over $350,000 worth of bets on Black Caviar in the first 24 hours of posting their TJ Smith Stakes markets.
“We took a bet of $150,000 almost instantly and since then we have taken further bets of $100,000, $44,000 and $22,000,” Michael Sullivan, CEO of Sportingbet Australia, said.
“Punters won’t hear of her getting beaten and the likes of Hay List and Crystal Lily can’t find a supporter to have more than $100 on them.
“Punters have just had such a huge run backer her during her 11 unbeaten runs that they are just jumping on as soon as we post the price.”
Luxbet’s chief bookmaker Paul Vincent is also aboard the Black Caviar express.
“It will be great for racing to see her make it 12 from 12,” Vincent told Races.com.au.
The 2011 Darley TJ Smith Stakes will run at 2:20pm (AEST) as Randwick Race 5 on Saturday.
Black Caviar jumps from barrier five with regular rider Luke Nolen aboard.
Randwick Race 5 Tips – 2011 TJ Smith Stakes
- #7 Black Caviar
The Queen – respect. Has a 100% Win Rate earning her over $2.6 million in prize money, she will add to this with another easy victory here.
- #1 Hay List
In better form and will come closer than before. Won the Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1200m) at Warwick Farm last start showing good form. Finished second behind Black Caviar in the Lightning Stakes and with Hay List back, Crystal Lily gets bumped from the runner-up title. Also runs well on Slow ground with a win and a second from his two starts on a Slow track.
- #2 Shoot Out
First-up and fit – last year’s AJC Derby winner has the confidence of his connections. Had a nice gallop at Randwick on Thursday and can finish in the money. Jumps from barrier two with Corey Brown in the mount. Won the Group 2 Royal Sovereign Stakes at this track and distance in February last year, is unbeaten (before now) at Randwick.
- #10 Hinchinbrook
Moody wouldn’t accept if stablemate to favourite didn’t have a chance. Nice barrier four draw, ridden by Brad Rawiller. Also boasts the best Place Rate of the field with 50% and has won and placed at the TJ Smith Stakes track and distance.