2011 TJ Smith Stakes Form Guide & Betting Analysis

While the official feature race on the Randwick programme this Saturday is the 150th AJC Australian Derby, every horse racing fan in the country will also be awaiting Black Caviar’s run in the $1 million Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) and below is a detailed form analysis on the sprint showdown.

Black Caviar

Black Caviar is the deserved odds-on favourite to win the 2011 TJ Smith Stakes

The 2011 Darley TJ Smith Stakes is set to run as Randwick Race 5 on Saturday at 2:20pm (AEST) and has attracted a fine field of 11 sprinters lead by the world’s best thoroughbred Black Caviar.

Making her highly spruiked Sydney debut, Peter Moody’s sensational queen of the turf Black Caviar will attempt to add a 12th successive win to her stunning record and become a five-time Group 1 winner in the same breath.

Having annihilated her rivals with effortless ease in all three of her first-up starts this season, four-year-old Bel Esprit mare Black Caviar has the form, class and superior record to earn her stripes, or spots as her racing silks would have, as the deserved odds-on TJ Smith Stakes favourite.

Bookies around the country currently have Black Caviar at a firming quote of around $1.20 – $1.25 to become the TJ Smith Stakes winner on Saturday and the punters haven’t shied away from her at this price.

Moody too seems to be brimming with confidence heading into Saturday with his stable superstar.

“Facts and figures tell you the opposition can’t beat her without something going amiss – that is just plain and simple,” Moody said.

“I don’t want to sound bullish about it. All these horses, or the majority of them, she has met and beat comprehensively.”

However, with rain around and Black Caviar racing in Sydney for the first time, if ever there were a chance for an upset this would be it.

There is plenty of depth to be found in her 10 TJ Smith Stakes rivals with the likes of Hay List, Crystal Lily, Shoot Out and Response ready to take on the undisputed sprinting champion.

Even if an upset TJ Smith Stakes result seems unlikely, there’s still the matter of which horses will come the closest to Black Caviar on the line and fill the minor placings.

Below is a list of important facts, statistics, historical trends and betting tips revealed in the 2011 TJ Smith Stakes field and form guide.

2011 TJ Smith Stakes Field & Form Guide Facts

  • #7 Black Caviar is unbeaten and as such boasts the best Win Rate of the field with 100%
  • The next most consistent of her rivals is #1 Hay List with a Win Rate of 76%
  • Based on Place Rate Percentages, the best Place chances are #10 Hinchinbrook (50%), #6 Demerit (45%) and #11 Crystal Lily (42%)
  • Crystal Lily also comes off two second place finishes to Black Caviar in the William Reid Stakes and Newmarket Handicap
  • #1 Hay List and #6 Demerit are the only other horses in the field to have finished runner-up behind Black Caviar, Hay List in the Coolmore Classic on February 19 and Demerit in the Listed Blue Sapphire Stakes back in May of 2009
  • Black Caviar is the highest earner of the field having amassed over $2.6 million in prize money
  • The next highest earners are #11 Crystal Lily ($2.59 million) and #4 Triple Honour ($2.09 million)
  • Aside from the favourite there are two other last-start winners in the TJ Smith Stakes, Hay List -Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1200m) at Warwick Farm on March 27 – and Response – Group 1 Robert Sangster Stakes (1200m) at Morphettville on March 26
  • Last year’s TJ Smith Stakes winner Melito jumped from barrier seven and this year #9 Response has drawn barrier seven
  • Four horses will be ridden by a previous TJ Smith Stakes winning jockey on Saturday with #2 Shoot Out (Corey Brown), #5 Shellscrape (Nash Rawiller), #6 Demerit (Kerrin McEvoy) and #8 Alverta (Hugh Bowman)
  • Of these Corey Brown won the race most recently aboard Apache Cat in 2008
  • Horses that have run and won at the TJ Smith Stakes Track & Distance are #2 Shoot Out (1-1-0-0), #5 Shellscrape (3-1-1-1), #8 Alverta (5-1-2-0), #10 Hinchinbrook (2-1-0-1) and #11 Crystal Lily (1-1-0-0)
  • There’s a high chance the 2011 TJ Smith Stakes will be run on Slow ground and horses with the best Slow Track Records are #1 Hay List (2-1-1-0), #2 Shoot Out (7-3-1-2), #5 Shellscrape (4-3-0-0), #6 Demerit (2-1-0-1), #8 Alverta (5-1-1-1) and #11 Crystal Lily (2-1-1-0)

2011 TJ Smith Stakes Betting Favourite

  • #7 Black Caviar (5)

Black Caviar Horse Form Past Five Starts

Pos. Track Date Dist. Track Con. Class Jockey (Br.) Wgt. Odds Winner Win. Time
1 – 7 M V 25/03/2011 1200 Dead G1WFA L NOLEN (6) 56.5 $1.09 BLACK CAVIAR 70
1 – 11 FLEM 12/03/2011 1200 Good G1HCP L NOLEN (7) 58 $1.18 BLACK CAVIAR 67.36
1 – 9 FLEM 19/02/2011 1000 Dead G1WFA L NOLEN (6) 56.5 $1.29 BLACK CAVIAR 57.2
1 – 7 FLEM 6/11/2010 1200 Good G1WFA B MELHAM (6) 56.5 $1.9 BLACK CAVIAR 67.96
1 – 6 M V 23/10/2010 1200 Dead G2WFA L NOLEN (2) 56.5 $1.4 BLACK CAVIAR 71.01