Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The 150th AJC Australian Derby is the premier race on the Royal Randwick programme this Saturday April 9 and with a talented field of three-year-olds engaged to face off, looking at the form guide facts and statistics is the best way to reveal which horse will hit the line first.
The $1.5 million Group 1 AJC Australian Derby (2400m) is scheduled as Randwick Race 7 at 3:40pm (AEST) on Saturday and has drawn a final field of 14 horses.
Pronounced favourite to win this year’s AJC Derby is the in-form Kiwi colt Jimmy Choux.
The John Bary-trained son of Thorn Park enjoyed four successive Group race wins back home including a smart victory in the Group 1 New Zealand Derby (2400m) before bringing his flying form over to Australia.
On his Australian debut Jimmy Choux showed great guts to beat home Retrieve by half a length in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) on March 26 in the ideal preparatory run for the AJC Derby.
Trainer Bary in convinced his colt has done the work and is at peak fitness to become the first horse since Bonecrusher in 1985/86 to win the New Zealand Derby and AJC Australian Derby in the same season.
“He has really matured on this trip,” Bary said.
“We’ll go out there and do what we always do.”
Jimmy Choux is the firming $2.20 favourite in the AJC Australian Derby markets followed by now equal $7 second elects Retrieve and Shamrocker.
While Retrieve has drifted slightly from his opening price of $6.50, many experts still fancy the Peter Snowden-trained Rahy colt to bounce back from his last-start sixth in the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes (2000m).
“Opting for a horse who was soundly beaten last week may not seem wise,” Luxbet’s leading bookmaker Paul Vincent told Races.com.au.
“However, you can forgive a good horse one bad run and there’s no way (Peter) Snowden would be back him up unless he’s fit and well.”
Below are the essential 2011 AJC Australian Derby field statistics, historical trends and form guide facts revealing the best Win and Place chances for Saturday’s showdown.
2011 AJC Australian Derby Field Statistics & Form Guide Analysis
- #1 Jimmy Choux boasts the highest Win Rate of the field with 59%
- The next most consistent runner in the Derby is #2 Anacheeva with a Win Rate of 40%
- Jimmy Choux is also the highest earner in Saturday’s race having won over $2.03 million in prize money followed by #14 Shamrocker ($922,388)
- Shamrocker is also the only filly in the Derby field, fillies have only won 8 of the previous 149 AJC Derbies (most recently Research in 1989) but she does meet her male rivals 2kg better in the weights
- Along with the favourite there is only one other last-start winner in the field, #11 High Density who won a 2000m race at Canberra on April 1
- Shoot Out won the AJC Derby 12 months ago from barrier eight, this year #14 Shamrocker has drawn barrier eight
- Last year’s AJC Australian Derby winner Shoot Out came off a fourth place finish in the Rosehill Guineas
- Horses in this year’s Derby to come via the Rosehill Guineas are Jimmy Choux (1st), Retrieve (2nd), Shamrocker (3rd), Light Brigade (4th), Masquerader (5th), He’s Remarkable (6th), Anacheeva (7th), Praecido (9th), Domesky (10th) and Duracius (12th)
- Based on Place Percentages the best Place Bets to make on the Derby are #6 Domesky (55% Place Rate), #11 High Density (50% Place Rate) and #3 Retrieve (46% Place Rate)
- No horses have run and won at the AJC Derby Track & Distance
- Jimmy Choux is the only runner to have won over 2400m when he took out the New Zealand Derby on March 5
- Randwick is likely to be rated a Slow Track on Saturday and horses with the best record on Slow ground are #1 Jimmy Choux (3-2-1-0), #2 Anacheeva (1-1-0-0), #7 He’s Remarkable (2-1-0-1) and #12 King Gladiator (1-1-0-0)
- Horses prepared by a previous AJC Australian Derby winning trainer are #9 I Think I Do (Bart Cummings) and #10 Shadowofexcellence (John Hawkes of the John, Michael and Wayne Hawkes training team)
- Only two hopefuls will have a previous AJC Derby winning jockey in the mount this year with #4 Praecido (Corey Brown) and #14 Shamrocker (Glen Boss)
2011 David Jones 150th AJC Australian Derby Betting Favourite
#1 Jimmy Choux (1)
Jimmy Choux Form Past 5 Starts
|Pos.||Track||Date||Dist.||Track Con.||Class||Jockey (Br.)||Wgt.||Odds||Winner||Win. Time|
|1 – 13||RHIL||26/03/2011||2000||Slow||3G1SWT||J K RIDDELL (6)||56.5||$4.5||JIMMY CHOUX||125.33|
|1 – 16||ELLS||5/03/2011||2400||Very Heavy||3G1||J K RIDDELL (6)||56||$2.3||JIMMY CHOUX||158.35|
|1 – 11||TE R||5/02/2011||2000||Fast||3G3||J K RIDDELL (6)||56||$2.43||JIMMY CHOUX||121.19|
|1 – 12||TREN||22/01/2011||1600||Dead||3G3||J K RIDDELL (3)||56||$2.11||JIMMY CHOUX||97.01|
|1 – 10||ELLS||26/12/2010||1600||Good||3G2||J K RIDDELL (3)||56||$2.8||JIMMY CHOUX||93.53|
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