Can Precedence Give Bart a 14th Australian Cup Winner in 2011?

Today Flemington’s Super Saturday of Racing will be host to a top nine-race programme including the $1 million Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m) and with betting on the stayers’ showdown starting to heat up, the team take a look at whether Precedence can become the 2011 Australian Cup winner for legendary trainer Bart Cummings.

Having already trained an unprecedented 13 Australian Cup winners throughout his glittering career to date, this afternoon Cummings will be represented in the 2011 Australian Cup field by his Zabeel five-year-old Precedence.

In one of the most open Australian Cup fields to date, there is no true standout weight-for-age champion domination the Australian Cup betting.

Following a solid win in the Group 2 St George Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield on Blue Diamond Stakes Day, the Mick Price-trained Heart Of Dreams is the current Australian Cup favourite paying $4.40 through Luxbet.

However, queries over Heart Of Dreams over 2000m have emerged meaning there could be better value laying the favourite in the Australian Cup this afternoon.

With the ‘Bart Factor’ behind Precedence he becomes an attractive horse to back in the Australian Cup odds at a nice $6 price through Luxbet.

Below we take a look at the form and career statistics of Precedence to assess his claims in the Australian Cup 2011.

Why Precedence Can Become the 2011 Australian Cup Winner

– Ran a solid second to Australian Cup betting favourite Heart Of Dreams in the St George Stakes last start and will improve with the extra distance today and having had a weight-for-age run this prep

– Boasts one of the best records over the Australian Cup distance of 2000m with two wins from three starts

– May have had just one start at this track and distance but it was a mighty seven length win at last year’s Super Saturday of Racing meet

– In that race he ran the 2000m 2.29 seconds faster than 2010 Australian Cup winner Zipping, Zipping is not racing in today’s event

– His win at Flemington over 2000m 12 months ago makes him one of only three runners in the field to win at this track and distance along with Scenic Shot ($21 Luxbet) and Laristan ($41 Luxbet)

– Meets all but two rivals, Laristan (58.5kg) and Playing God (54.5kg), at the same weight

Why Precedence Can’t win the Australian Cup 2011

– Drawn wide in barrier 13 from the 15-horse field meaning he will need a lot of luck to get the run he needs for the win

– Has a Win Rate of just 23%

– Yet to really prove himself in the weight-for-age arena

– May be unsuited to the Firm Flemington track conditions today

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2011 Australian Cup Form

#5 Precedence (13)

(by Zabeel from Kowtow)

  • Weight: 59kg
  • Trainer: Bart Cummings
  • Jockey: Steven Arnold
  • Prize Money: $789,790
  • Career: 26-6-4-1
  • 2000m: 3-2-0-0
  • Win %: 23
  • Place %: 19
  • Current Australian Cup Odds: $6 – Bet on Precedence now through Luxbet

Luxbet also have the most competitive Australian Cup odds on the entire field so if there’s another runner you fancy, visit Luxbet now to lock them in at the best price in the country!

Precedence Form Past Five Starts

Pos. Track Date Dist. Track Con. Class Jockey (Br.) Wgt. Odds Winner Margin Win. Time
2 – 13 CAUL 26/02/2011 1800 Dead G2WFA S W ARNOLD (1) 59 $21 HEART OF DREAMS 2.5L 108.82
14 – 16 CAUL 12/02/2011 1400 Good G1WFA S W ARNOLD (12) 59 $31 TYPHOON TRACY 10.6L 82.72
8 – 23 FLEM 2/11/2010 3200 Slow G1HCP J WINKS (14) 53.5 $21 AMERICAIN 9.5L 206.87
1 – 15 M V 23/10/2010 2500 Dead G2SPW B SHINN (10) 56.5 $2.11 PRECEDENCE 158.94
3 – 10 CAUL 9/10/2010 2400 Dead G2HCP B SHINN (1) 56.5 $2.62 LINTON 0.9L 149.43