Heart Of Dreams is the favourite to win the $1 million Group 1 Australian Cup at Flemington this Saturday March 12, but can Mick Price’s galloper step it up to 2000m and beat proven stayers including Shocking, Moudre and Ginga Dude to become the 2011 Australian Cup winner?
Leading online Aussie bookmaker Luxbet has Heart Of Dreams at the top of their Australian Cup odds at a firming quote of $4.40 despite queries over the five-year-olds’ ability over the distance.
Without any standout weight-for-age performers amongst this year’s 15-horse Australian Cup field, the punters have been a little unsure and there has been money coming in for a number of Heart Of Dreams’ rivals to cause an upset result in Flemington Race 7 this Saturday.
So can Heart Of Dreams prove himself as a stayer and back up his all-the-way win in the St George Stakes with a victory in the Australian Cup 2011?
Or is there more value in the Australian Cup betting by laying the favourite and getting behind one of the longer-priced contenders such as Precedence ($6 Luxbet)who is prepared by the Cups King Bart Cummings or the Lloyd Williams-owned Linton ($8 Luxbet) who should be much sharper here with the addition of blinkers.
See below for the form and stats on Heart Of Dreams so you can assess the chance he has to win the Australian Cup on Saturday then check out the full Flemington race odds at Luxbet.
Why Heart of Dreams Will Become the 2011 Australian Cup Winner
– The favourite is one of only three last-start winners in the field having taken out the St George Stakes on February 26
– Beat many of his fellow Australian Cup rivals in the St George Stakes including Precedence (2nd), Ginga Dude (4th), Shocking (7th), Moudre (8th) and Linton (9th)
– The St George Stakes has proved an excellent indicator to the Australian Cup in recent years
– Drawn ideally in barrier three
– Was fourth in the 2010 Australian Cup and has come on since then looking fitter and having had a better lead-up than 12 months ago
– Prepared by Mick Price who is an Australian Cup winning trainer with Pompeii Ruler (2007)
Why There Will be an Upset 2011 Australian Cup Result
– Heart Of Dreams is yet to win over the Australian Cup distance of 2000m having had three starts that have produced just one second place finish
– Has a relatively unimpressive Flemington record of six starts for one win and two seconds and faces a number of track specialists here
– Looks better for the place with a Win Rate of just 26% but a Place Rate of 39%
Horse Form Australian Cup 2011
#3 Heart Of Dreams (9)
(by Show A Heart from Academy Of Dreams)
- Weight: 59kg
- Trainer: Mick Price
- Jockey: Damien Oliver
- Prize Money: $1,527,610
- Career: 23-6-6-3
- 2000m: 3-0-1-0
- Win %: 26
- Place %: 65
- Current Australian Cup Odds: $4.40 – Back Heart Of Dreams at Luxbet now
Heart Of Dreams Form – Recent Runs
|Pos.||Track||Date||Dist.||Track Con.||Class||Jockey (Br.)||Wgt.||Odds||Winner||Margin||Win. Time|
|1 – 13||CAUL||26/02/2011||1800||Dead||G2WFA||D OLIVER (13)||59||$2.38||HEART OF DREAMS||–||108.82|
|2 – 16||CAUL||12/02/2011||1400||Good||G1WFA||D OLIVER (2)||59||$13||TYPHOON TRACY||0.1L||82.72|
|7 – 9||M V||28/01/2011||1200||Good||G2WFA||D OLIVER (9)||58.5||$21||WHITEFRIARS||4.7L||69.66|
|7 – 11||CAUL||18/09/2010||1800||Good||G1WFA||D OLIVER (1)||59||$6.5||SO YOU THINK||4.9L||109.54|
|2 – 16||FLEM||4/09/2010||1600||Heavy||G2WFA||D OLIVER (16)||59||$7.5||SHOCKING||0.5L||101.7|
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2011 Australian Cup Betting Odds
|No.||Horse (Barrier)||Luxbet Odds||$400 Free Bet Win|
|2||SCENIC SHOT (15)||21||$8,400|
|3||HEART OF DREAMS (9)||4.40||$1,760|
|4||CEST LA GUERRE (3)||41||$16,400|
|12||LORD PYRUS (2)||61||$24,400|
|13||MR CHARLIE (5)||71||$28,400|
|15||PLAYING GOD (11)||9.00||$3,600|
Photo courtesy (c) Taron Clarke Photography