The 2011 Chipping Norton Stakes is set to jump as Warwick Farm Race 6 at 4:26pm (AEDST) tomorrow, the star-studded field of 13 lead by classy mare Melito.
Premier online bookmaker Luxbet have Gerald Ryan’s in-form daughter of Redoute’s Choice at a firming quote of $3.20 to become the Chipping Norton Stakes winner on Saturday despite the four-year-old drawing the far outside alley.
A dual Group 1 winner having taken out the All Aged Stakes at Randwick last April and the Winter Stakes in Brisbane in June, Melito returned to the winners stall first-up on February 19 with a brilliant victory in the Group 2 Apollo Stakes (1400m).
So can she make it two on the trot in the Chipping Norton, or will her uneasy record over the mile and her horror draw see an upset Warwick Farm Race 6 result?
Why Melito Will Become the 2011 Chipping Norton Stakes Winner
– Her last-start win in the Apollo was ultra impressive
– Is the sole runner coming off a victory in this year’s Chipping Norton field
– Beat a number of her Chipping Norton Stakes rivals in the Apollo including Centennial Park and Once Were Wild
– Is second-up for the season and has an impressive second-up record of three wins from four starts, her only second-up defeat when facing Black Caviar so forgive that
– Won a Group 1 in Brisbane from a wide barrier 12 draw last year
– Has plenty of speed and ability to get across and take the lead and if she does will take some catching
– Meets her male rivals 2kg better in the WFA conditions
– Hasn’t won over the mile but was beaten less than half a length when second in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas over 1600m at Caulfield in 2009
Why She Can’t Win the 2011 Chipping Norton Stakes
– Drawn barrier 13 in a 13 horse field, her widest draw to date
– Her poor experience over the mile doesn’t instil confidence
– Has only a 24% Win Rate while her Place Rate of 52% (excluding 1st place finishes) shows she could prove a better Place / Exotic selection through Luxbet
– Faces eight other Group 1 winners all that have claims for an upset
2011 Chipping Norton Stakes Horse Form
#11 Melito (13)
(by Redoute’s Choice from Cloister)
- Weight: 57kg
- Trainer: Gerald Ryan
- Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
- Prize Money: $1,767,950
- Career: 21-5-8-3
- 1600m: 2-0-0-1
- Win %: 24
- Place %: 52 (2nd / 3rd only) & 76 (inc. wins)
- Current Chipping Norton Stakes Odds: $3.20 – Bet on Melito now at Luxbet
Melito Form – Recent Starts
|Pos.||Track||Date||Dist.||Track Con.||Class||Jockey (Br.)||Wgt.||Odds||Winner||Margin||Win. Time|
|1 – 10||RHIL||19/02/2011||1400||Good||G2WFA||B AVDULLA (9)||57||$8.5||MELITO||–||82.28|
|5 – 7||FLEM||6/11/2010||1200||Good||G1WFA||C W BROWN (3)||56.5||$41||BLACK CAVIAR||10.7L||67.96|
|5 – 6||M V||23/10/2010||1200||Dead||G2WFA||C W BROWN (4)||56.5||$12||BLACK CAVIAR||7.4L||71.01|
|1 – 12||E FM||26/06/2010||1400||Dead||G1F&M||C W BROWN (12)||55.5||$3.75||MELITO||–||81.83|
|2 – 18||E FM||12/06/2010||1400||Good||G1HCP||C W BROWN (3)||51.5||$5.5||BLACK PIRANHA||0.1L||81.16|
After checking out Melito’s form we’re sure there are plenty of punters out there keen to back her.
So bet on Melito now but avoid the TAB and do it online for a better price at Luxbet.
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Chipping Norton Stakes Betting 2011
|No.||Horse (Barrier)||Luxbet Odds||$400 Free Bet Win|
|2||DESCARADO (NZ) (11)||26||$10,400|
|4||ZAVITE (NZ) (1)||101||$40,400|
|5||ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (GB) (3)||101||$40,400|
|6||CENTENNIAL PARK (NZ) (2)||7.00||$2,800|
|7||MALUCKYDAY (NZ) (7)||6.00||$2,400|
|8||VISION AND POWER (NZ) (4)||81||$32,400|
|9||LUEN YAT FOREVER (5)||14||$5,600|
|10||LORNE DANCER (10)||51||$20,400|
|12||SACRED CHOICE (6)||21||$8,400|
|13||ONCE WERE WILD (9)||7.50||$3,000|
Note: Odds are subject to change and correct at time of publication. All prices are Fixed Win.
Photo courtesy (c) Steve Hart Photographics