Will Favourite Melito Become the 2011 Chipping Norton Stakes Winner?

Melito

Melito has firmed into $3.20 to become the 2011 Chipping Norton Stakes winner

The Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival hits fever pitch this Saturday with the first Group 1 race of the festival, the $350,000 Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m), lighting up the Warwick Farm track and with all the punters’ money on Melito the Races.com.au crew ask the question Will Favourite Melito Become the 2011 Chipping Norton Stakes Winner?

The 2011 Chipping Norton Stakes is set to jump as Warwick Farm Race 6 at 4:26pm (AEDST) tomorrow, the star-studded field of 13 lead by classy mare Melito.

Premier online bookmaker Luxbet have Gerald Ryan’s in-form daughter of Redoute’s Choice at a firming quote of $3.20 to become the Chipping Norton Stakes winner on Saturday despite the four-year-old drawing the far outside alley.

A dual Group 1 winner having taken out the All Aged Stakes at Randwick last April and the Winter Stakes in Brisbane in June, Melito returned to the winners stall first-up on February 19 with a brilliant victory in the Group 2 Apollo Stakes (1400m).

So can she make it two on the trot in the Chipping Norton, or will her uneasy record over the mile and her horror draw see an upset Warwick Farm Race 6 result?

Why Melito Will Become the 2011 Chipping Norton Stakes Winner

– Her last-start win in the Apollo was ultra impressive

– Is the sole runner coming off a victory in this year’s Chipping Norton field

Beat a number of her Chipping Norton Stakes rivals in the Apollo including Centennial Park and Once Were Wild

– Is second-up for the season and has an impressive second-up record of three wins from four starts, her only second-up defeat when facing Black Caviar so forgive that

Won a Group 1 in Brisbane from a wide barrier 12 draw last year

– Has plenty of speed and ability to get across and take the lead and if she does will take some catching

– Meets her male rivals 2kg better in the WFA conditions

– Hasn’t won over the mile but was beaten less than half a length when second in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas over 1600m at Caulfield in 2009

Why She Can’t Win the 2011 Chipping Norton Stakes

– Drawn barrier 13 in a 13 horse field, her widest draw to date

– Her poor experience over the mile doesn’t instil confidence

– Has only a 24% Win Rate while her Place Rate of 52% (excluding 1st place finishes) shows she could prove a better Place / Exotic selection through Luxbet

– Faces eight other Group 1 winners all that have claims for an upset

2011 Chipping Norton Stakes Horse Form

#11 Melito (13)

(by Redoute’s Choice from Cloister)

  • Weight: 57kg
  • Trainer: Gerald Ryan
  • Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
  • Prize Money: $1,767,950
  • Career: 21-5-8-3
  • 1600m: 2-0-0-1
  • Win %: 24
  • Place %: 52 (2nd / 3rd only) & 76 (inc. wins)
  • Current Chipping Norton Stakes Odds: $3.20 – Bet on Melito now at Luxbet

Melito Form – Recent Starts

Pos. Track Date Dist. Track Con. Class Jockey (Br.) Wgt. Odds Winner Margin Win. Time
1 – 10 RHIL 19/02/2011 1400 Good G2WFA B AVDULLA (9) 57 $8.5 MELITO 82.28
5 – 7 FLEM 6/11/2010 1200 Good G1WFA C W BROWN (3) 56.5 $41 BLACK CAVIAR 10.7L 67.96
5 – 6 M V 23/10/2010 1200 Dead G2WFA C W BROWN (4) 56.5 $12 BLACK CAVIAR 7.4L 71.01
1 – 12 E FM 26/06/2010 1400 Dead G1F&M C W BROWN (12) 55.5 $3.75 MELITO 81.83
2 – 18 E FM 12/06/2010 1400 Good G1HCP C W BROWN (3) 51.5 $5.5 BLACK PIRANHA 0.1L 81.16

After checking out Melito’s form we’re sure there are plenty of punters out there keen to back her.

So bet on Melito now but avoid the TAB and do it online for a better price at Luxbet.

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Chipping Norton Stakes Betting 2011

No. Horse (Barrier) Luxbet Odds $400 Free Bet Win
1 THESEO (12) 8.00 $3,200
2 DESCARADO (NZ) (11) 26 $10,400
3 DANLEIGH (8) 7.50 $3,000
4 ZAVITE (NZ) (1) 101 $40,400
5 ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (GB) (3) 101 $40,400
6 CENTENNIAL PARK (NZ) (2) 7.00 $2,800
7 MALUCKYDAY (NZ) (7) 6.00 $2,400
8 VISION AND POWER (NZ) (4) 81 $32,400
9 LUEN YAT FOREVER (5) 14 $5,600
10 LORNE DANCER (10) 51 $20,400
11 MELITO (13) 3.20 $1,280
12 SACRED CHOICE (6) 21 $8,400
13 ONCE WERE WILD (9) 7.50 $3,000

Note: Odds are subject to change and correct at time of publication. All prices are Fixed Win.

Photo courtesy (c) Steve Hart Photographics