Considering it’s extremely difficult to pick the winner out of the horses at smaller odds, you’d be forgiven for not paying much attention to the long shots further back in the betting.
However there is one in particular that’s probably worth a second glance even at the big odds of $34 at Luxbet.
Dusty Star (#8) is a horse that regardless of finishing position will certainly have an impact on this year’s race.
Earlier in his career the three-year-old gelding sat deep in the field and tried to run over the top of them, but a decision was eventually made to go to the front and he’s never looked back.
He’s drawn Gate 2 for the 2011 Australian Guineas which means he’s odds on to be well and truly at the front by the time they take the first bend.
This isn’t one of those horses that will be content to just sit on the pace either, connections aren’t afraid to let the jockey ride aggressively and really force the issue, sometimes pulling two or three lengths clear.
That’s where he’s surprised his opposition before and if they’re not cautious he’s capable of doing it again in the Australian Guineas.
The Caulfield Autumn Stakes was a perfect example of the competition giving him far too much space at the front and the gelding showing real guts and determination to keep the pace down the strait to eventually win the event.
In the process he beat one of the Australian Guineas favourites in Under The Eiffel as well as other runners Eclair Surprise, Roadtrain, Hollowlea and Run For Levi.
With the exception of the emergency all of these runners are significantly shorter in the betting markets than the forgotten Dusty Star.
Obviously a lot of that has to do with a last start hiccup in the CS Hays Stakes where the tables were turned on him somewhat, but it’s worth remembering he’d never previously run worse than fourth and finished either first or second in his last six starts.
Sure it’s a step up in both distance and class, but from barrier 2 with an aggressive race style he’s exciting to watch and you know the rest of the field is going to have to run past him to win.
A favourite he’s not, but a chance he certainly is. There’s a lot worse horses paying a lot smaller odds in the 2011 Australian Guineas.
He’s got to be one of the best value chances we’ve seen in a Group 1 event for a long time, so if you’re game why not take the big odds with Luxbet.
If you’ve got just as much guts as the Peter Morgan trained runner you could even use your sign up free bet to ride him home risk free.
All you have to do is make your first deposit with Luxbet and they will match it with a free bet of equal value up to $400.
If he wins that’d give you a return of $13,600!!!
So have another think about Dusty Star before placing your final 2011 Australian Guineas bets, he’s a horse paying double his real chances who could pay you 34 times your stake with Luxbet
2011 Australian Guineas Betting Odds
|No.||Horse (Barrier)||Luxbet Odds||$400 Free Bet Win|
|2||PLAYING GOD (3)||5.50||$2,200|
|4||MR CHARD (13)||26||$10,400|
|5||RUN FOR LEVI (1)||26||$10,400|
|8||DUSTY STAR (2)||34||$13,600|
|9||SPIRITED EAGLE (14)||17||$6,800|
|10||SMOKIN’ JOEY (6)||41||$16,400|
|11||UNDER THE EIFFEL (10)||8.50||$3,400|
|12||ECLAIR SURPRISE (15)||15||$6,000|
|13||ENJIN NUMBER NINE (NZ) (7)||10||$4,000|
|14||SHAMROCKER (NZ) (9)||31||$12,400|
|15||WE CAN SAY IT NOW (12)||5.50||$2,200|
|16||SOUTHERN SPEED (20)||8.50||$3,400|
|20e||ABSOLUTELYAWESOME (NZ) (5)||51||$20,400|
Note: Odds are subject to change and correct at time of publication. All prices are Fixed Win.
Photo courtesy (c) Taron Clarke Photography