Can Bullbars Claim an Upset Win in the 2011 Australian Guineas?

Bullbars

Bullbars could claim an upset win the 2011 Australian Guineas

The 2011 Australian Guineas is the premier race running at Flemington this Saturday and while interstate and overseas raiders Playing God and We Can Say It Now are dominating the betting markets for the three-year-olds’ showdown, Peter Snowden’s colt Bullbars also has claims to cause an upset Australian Guineas result.

Warwick Farm-based trainer Snowden took out the prestigious Blue Diamond Stakes last Saturday with his crack two-year-old Sepoy and he is out in force at Flemington tomorrow seeking consecutive elite level wins for the autumn with another son of Elusive Quality, Bullbars.

Bullbars is set to contest the $750,000 Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m), running as Flemington Race 6, having earned a spot in the field with his hard fought win in the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes (1400m) at Flemington on February 19.

Australian Guineas betting markets at Luxbet have ultra consistent Perth galloper and Group 1 winner Playing God as the equal $5.50 favourite with the ‘wildcard’ entry, Kiwi filly We Can Say It Now.

The punters are also starting to come for Bullbars, an Australian Guineas market firmer in from $10 to $9 at Luxbet.

Below the Races.com.au take a good look at the form and chances Bullbars has in the Australian Guineas tomorrow.

Why Bullbars Can Win the 2011 Australian Guineas

– Is one of only three last-start winners in the field along with Playing God (whose win was in WA) and Southern Speed (who has drawn the far outside barrier here)

– Will have improved from his last start win in the CS Hayes where Bullbars came from last-to-first in a gutsy run

– Prepared by Snowden who is training all the big winners at present

– Drawn in barrier 11 but will come into barrier nine if emergencies don’t get a start, an advantage as all Australian Guineas winners have jumped from a single-digit gate

– Won the CS Hayes Last start from the far outside barrier 15 in a 15-horse field

– Beat a number of his fellow Australian Guineas rivals in the CS Hayes including Startsmeup, Spirited Eagle and Enjin Number Nine

Why He Can’t be the 2011 Australian Guineas Winner

– Regular rider Mark Zahra has been replaced as Bullbars’ jockey in the Guineas by Kerrin McEvoy, yet to ride an Australian Guineas winner

– Hasn’t faced favourites Playing God or We Can Say It Now before and they may be too good

– Stepping up 1kg weight from last start

– Yet to win over the mile having run third and eighth at his two starts over 1600m

– May be a better Place Bet as they have just a 29% Win Rate but a more consistent Place Rate of 43% (and 71% if taking wins into account)

2011 Australian Guineas Horse Form

#7 Bullbars (11)

(by Elusive Quality from Accessories)

  • Weight: 55.5kg
  • Trainer: Peter Snowden
  • Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
  • Prize Money: $234,825
  • Career: 7-2-1-2
  • 1600m: 2-0-0-1
  • Win %: 29
  • Place %: 43 (2nd & 3rd only) / 71 (with wins)
  • Current Australian Guineas Odds: $8.50 – Back Bullbars now at Luxbet

Bullbars Form – Recent Starts

Pos. Track Date Dist. Track Con. Class Jockey (Br.) Wgt. Odds Winner Margin Win. Time
1 – 15 FLEM 19/02/2011 1400 Dead 3CG3SW M ZAHRA (15) 54 $15 BULLBARS 83.93
2 – 7 SANH 9/02/2011 1300 Good 3G4SWT M ZAHRA (6) 56.5 $7 ENJIN NUMBER NINE 2.3L 76.66
8 – 16 CAUL 9/10/2010 1600 Dead 3G1SWT M ZAHRA (6) 55.5 $15 ANACHEEVA 6.9L 97.01
3 – 13 M V 24/09/2010 1600 Good 3G2SWT M ZAHRA (7) 57 $4.5 HOLLOWLEA 1.6L 97.29
4 – 13 FLEM 4/09/2010 1400 Heavy 3G4SWT J WINKS (13) 55 $8 HOLLOWLEA 2.1L 86.88

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2011 Australian Guineas Betting Odds

No. Horse (Barrier) Luxbet Odds $400 Free Bet Win
1 ANACHEEVA (16) 15 $6,000
2 PLAYING GOD (3) 5.50 $2,200
3 STARTSMEUP (17) 34 $13,600
4 MR CHARD (13) 26 $10,400
5 RUN FOR LEVI (1) 26 $10,400
6 HOLLOWLEA (4) 26 $10,400
7 BULLBARS (11) 9.00 $3,600
8 DUSTY STAR (2) 34 $13,600
9 SPIRITED EAGLE (14) 17 $6,800
10 SMOKIN’ JOEY (6) 41 $16,400
11 UNDER THE EIFFEL (10) 8.50 $3,400
12 ECLAIR SURPRISE (15) 15 $6,000
13 ENJIN NUMBER NINE (NZ) (7) 10 $4,000
14 SHAMROCKER (NZ) (9) 31 $12,400
15 WE CAN SAY IT NOW (12) 5.50 $2,200
16 SOUTHERN SPEED (20) 8.50 $3,400
17e GOLDSTONE (18) 71 $28,400
18e LIVEANDLETDIE (19) 81 $32,400
19e ROADTRAIN (8) 61 $24,400
20e ABSOLUTELYAWESOME (NZ) (5) 51 $20,400

Note: Odds are subject to change and correct at time of publication. All prices are Fixed Win.

Photo courtesy (c) Taron Clarke Photography