There may not be quite as much pre-race hype surrounding Hay List taking on Black Caviar in the $750,000 Group 1 Lightning Stakes (1000m) at Flemington on Saturday as there was leading up to their first clash, but there are still plenty of punters out there asking whether Hay List has claims to defeat Black Caviar in the 2011 Lightning Stakes.

During the spring the highly-spruiked showdown between the hulking Hay List and brilliant Black Caviar in the Group 1 Patinack Farm Classic was, in the end, a disappointment.

Originally Hay List was short-priced favourite to defeat Moody’s unbeaten mare in the Patinack on Emirates Stakes Day.

But after injuring his leg in the lead-up, Hay List raced below par on the day and was thrashed 11 ½ lengths by Black Caviar who took her record to eight straight with the win.

It is a different atmosphere this time and you can expect Hay List to bring it on Saturday.

For obvious reasons Black Caviar is odds-on favourite to win the Lightning Stakes paying $1.40 at Luxbet ahead of Hay List at a quote of $5 to cause an upset.

So should Black Caviar and connections be concerned? Can Hay List bring an end to the queen’s reign or will it be another all-the-way hammering by the Bel Esprit four-year-old.

We all know the reasons against an upset Lighting Stakes result, namely the margin by which Black Caviar stamped her authority over Hay List in the Patinack last start.

But there are some facts suggesting Hay List has it in him to become the 2011 Lightning Stakes winner.

Why Hay List Can Beat Black Caviar in Lightning Stakes

• Hay List has his own imposing career record of 12 wins from 15 starts, that’s an impressive 80% Win Rate

• He has been freshened up with a spell after the Patinack and has no injury set-backs to stop him this time

• Hay List has more experience at 1000m and is undefeated at the distance having won all five of his starts over the Lightning Stakes’ distance

• Can advantage from his wider Lightning Stakes barrier draw Hay List (barrier 10) is drawn on the outside of Black Caviar (barrier seven) meaning he can move up and take her on early

• The Lightning Stakes is expected to be run on a Good 3 Flemington track and Hay list has won nine of his 10 starts on Good ground

• Easily won the Group 3 McEwen Stakes (1000m) at Moonee Valley first-up in the spring wearing blinkers and will have the blinkers on again for the first time since then which will sharpen him up

• Can and has produced blistering sectional times that match those of Black Caviar

• Along with Black Caviar Hay List is first-up for the season and he has won three of his four first-up runs

Brave enough to bet against the favourite and tip an upset with Hay List to win the Lightning Stakes on Saturday?

Come on! Try your luck and get good odds on Hay List at Luxbet today!

Photo courtesy (c) Taron Clarke Photography