Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
Ascot racecourse in Western Australia as usual kicks off the year with the running of the 2011 Perth Cup , a Group 2 event which is now run over 2400 Meters. The race was first run in 1887 and now carries a prize purse of $400,000. Early betting markets are up with Luxbet and see Ranger favorite at odds of $3.60 , but we dont think 2011 will be the 4 year olds’ year as we don’t think he is quiet seasoned enough or quite has the form to run a strong 2400 out.
Lets start our preview with the horses we don’t think can win the race under any circumstances, you can eliminate numbers 2 , 6 , 7, 9 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 17. These horses have things against them other than ability and we can discount them as tips , 4 Admiring is racing well but has a horror draw and will be wide , 3 Guyno is now a 7 year old and its been along time since he has won a race.
This leaves us with 1 , 5 , 8 , 10 , 15 , 16 as the only possible winning hopes. We don’t think Ranger will run a strong 2400 this year at the end of his preparation so we are going to leave him out too. So we have 5 horses left to analyze :
1. Colour Correct , was a good winner of the WFA 2100 Meter Group 2 Cox Stakes last start , has a good barrier and Harvey on board so will have every chance in the run , currently is $8.0 with Luxbet which is great value if you like him , and he did win well last start. He has to give all his opposition weight today and you cant help but think this wasn’t his main mission as its his 9th run this preparation.
5. Big Ted is a very consistent local stayer and has been very well tried from $14 into $9 already with Luxbet, this has been his mission all along and with the early support you can’t help but think he is spot on.
8. Mega steel is by a Victorian Derby winner in Helenus he drops 7kg in weight and really its the first time he is over a suitable distance now that he is more seasoned we think he is a good rough chance and with barrier 5 and CK Harvey in the saddle he is worth a ticket at $21 .
15.Tranquility is dropping 4kg in weight from a last start win over 1800 Meters and is well fancied at $7.50 but another we think is not suited stepping up to 2400 for the first time and consider her under the odds but is racing well and will be ridden well.
16. Western Jewel is second favorite at 5.50 and carries the same weight as she did winning here 10 days ago over the 2200, is by Melbourne Cup winner Jeune and has had 18 starts with half over those over distances over 2000 meters , has the runs on the board and is racing very well , a good chance.
Two roughies have been backed in early markets with Luxbet , 7 Late Night Flight from $101 into $61 and 12 Simply Adorable from $81 into $51.
So our final tips are :
Big Ted to beat Mega Steel and Western Jewel.
Take a trifecta
5 and 8 to win , to run second and third 1 , 5 , 8 , 10 , 15 , 16 for 5o cents and it will cost you $20.
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