Now the track has been officially rated a dead 5, we can look more closely at the parameters to try and choose the Melbourne Cup winner.
It’s important to pick a horse that can handle racing on a track that has been rain affected. We suspect that the track will be cut up a little by the time the Cup comes around and will generally better suit horses that can handle a slow track surface.
Also, stay away from runners that are likely to get caught on the rail, particularly over the last 1400 meters. The footing is going to be worse right on the rail because there have already been races run from this point, and the track will be more cut up on the inside. Think of it like racing someone up the beach and you are racing ankle deep in water against someone racing on the hard sand – it’s just harder to get through.
At the business end of things, we would expect the horse that wins the race will come down the middle of the track away from the rail. When the sprint is on, some horses do not like stretching out when the track is rain affected, as it undermines their confidence.
On a true dead 5 track, So You Think looks unbeatable. If it is racing more on the slow side, you must consider the roughies. Mr Medici, Shoot Out, Harris Tweed and Monaco Consul are worth considering on a slow track, plus the international horses also usually handle softer going.
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