Will Once Were Wild Score A Melbourne Cup Upset?

November 1, 2010

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Will Once Were Wild Score A Melbourne Cup Upset?

Once Were Wild is looking a decent outside chance at Melbourne Cup glory, but can she really win the race that stops a nation? We’ll begin with everything on her side.

First of all, Once Were Wild has some good experience in distance races, including a recent third place in the 2500 metre Lexus Stakes and an earlier win in the 2400 metre AJC Oaks.

Once Were Wild will also be carrying just 51.5kg and starting from barrier 11 – statistically the most successful barrier in the Melbourne Cup. Statistics don’t mean too much considering how few Melbourne Cup runs there have been, but it’s much better to have them on your side than against you. (This may be the 150th Melbourne Cup run, but 150 runs isn’t enough to really prove any bias at all).

It seems too soon, but let’s move to what could stop Once Were Wild winning the 2010 Melbourne Cup.

We’ll start with the fact she is a mare, which is usually a disadvantage. Yes, Makybe Diva did it, but Once Were Wild is not Makybe Diva.

Next, Once Were Wild has only ever won a single Group race. That was back in April, and she hasn’t been doing too well in the runs she has been in since then. She’s been beaten by a lot of other hot prospects in this run, as well, so a win just does not seem likely.

Once Were Wild looks like she could take a place, but she won’t win. Forget about her if the track turns heavy, otherwise include her in box First Fours.

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