Will Holberg Defy The Odds And Win The Melbourne Cup?

November 1, 2010

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Will Holberg Defy The Odds And Win The Melbourne Cup?

Holberg is a game looking 4 year old from the Godolphin Stables, but can he win the Melbourne Cup? Let’s take a look at the top reasons he could win.

To begin with, Holberg has a win at the 3200 metre distance in the Group 3 Queen’s Vase. This is a rare advantage in the Melbourne Cup field, and it places him as one of the better foreign hopefuls.

Unlike many of the other overseas runners, Holberg is actually a 4 year old in his prime. This is statistically in his favour, and a great relief after looking at all the 7 and 8 year olds from abroad.

Holberg is also carrying just 53.5kg, which is incredibly low despite the 3kg penalty. He is used to carrying much more over long distances, so this should work out well considering the many runners who will carry much more.

He is being ridden by Frankie Dettori, one of the best Godolphin riders. It’s a sign that the run is being taken seriously, though it’s hard to know if the aim is a win or simply decent prize money.

Now we’ll look at what stands against a Holberg Melbourne Cup win.

While so much is right for Holberg compared to other foreign contenders, he still hasn’t had a run in Australia. It is so frustrating, and it’s hard to believe that the owners are going for anything other than a prize place when they run a horse without a lead up run in Australia.

Holberg has also never run in a Group 1 race before, and hasn’t won or placed in better than a Group 3 run. That’s not a good record for a Melbourne Cup winner, and it makes his longer distance experience a little less valuable.

Holberg needs to be a part of any box First Four selections you make, as it looks like he’s being aimed to get reasonably deep in the prize money. A win does not look likely at all, though.

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