Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
With the 2010 Melbourne Cup jumping at 3:00pm local time on Tuesday 2nd November punters are getting their bets ready by studying the Melbourne Cup Form Guide.
The Races.com.au Melbourne Cup form guide and analysis covers all 24 stayers in the field for the 150th Melbourne Cup at Flemington.
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For more form information see our comprehensive 2010 Melbourne Cup form guide which includes each horses eight most recent runs, their weights, Melbourne Cup barriers, jockeys and trainers.
2010 Melbourne Cup Field & Form
|No||Form||Horse||Hcp||B||Age & Sex||Jockey||Trainer||Career (Starts-Wins-Place)|
|1||6X715246||Shocking||57.0||24||5H||M Rodd||Mar k Kavanagh||23- 6- 8|
|2||3-1-1-3x||Campanologist||56.0||19||6H||K McEvoy||Saeed Bin Suroor||25- 9- 8|
|3||12X11111||So You Think||56.0||3||4H||S Arnold||Bart Cummings||11- 8- 2|
|4||X7-1X512||Zipping||55.5||16||9G||N Hall||Robert Hickmott||44-15-10|
|5||1-4-215X||Illustrious Blue||55.0||9||8H||G Boss||William J Knight||54-10-17|
|6||312891X6||Mr Medici||55.0||5||6H||D Beadman||Peter Ho||34- 5-19|
|7||X1133344||Shoot Out||55.0||17||4G||C Brown||John Wallace||18- 7- 5|
|8||3X5111X1||Americain||54.5||12||6H||G Mosse||Alain de Royer Dupre||19- 7- 5|
|9||-5-1-9X0||Tokai Trick||54.5||4||9H||S Fujito||Kenji Nonaka||44- 8- 9|
|10||3X9X0070||Buccellati||54.0||21||7H||S King||Tony Noonan||30- 8- 3|
|11||2X061012||Descarado||54.0||1||4G||N Rawiller||Gai Waterhouse||15- 4- 6|
|12||633X9812||Harris Tweed||54.0||13||5G||B Rawiller||Murray & Bjorn Baker||25- 4-10|
|13||X2-552×5||Manighar||54.0||20||5G||D Oliver||Luca Cumani||13- 6- 4|
|14||5-8X0858||Master Oreilly||54.0||18||8G||V Duric||Danny O’Brien||44- 8- 9|
|15||33X67-03||Monaco Consul||54.0||14||4H||C Williams||Michael Moroney||15- 3- 4|
|16||X1211-2x||Profound Beauty||54.0||22||7M||P Smullen||Dermot K Weld||20- 9- 7|
|17||20X56407||Zavite||54.0||7||8G||M Walker||Anthony Cummings||57-10- 9|
|18||7X12X54x||Bauer||53.5||2||8G||C Munce||Luca Cumani||21- 6- 5|
|19||X1-5X21-||Holberg||53.5||10||5H||F Dettori||Saeed Bin Suroor||12- 6- 2|
|20||50X24131||Precedence||53.5||15||5G||B Shinn||Bart Cummings||23- 6- 4|
|21||3X906406||Red Ruler||53.5||8||6G||M Du Plessis||John Sargent||36- 7- 7|
|22||1-3X3312||Linton||52.0||23||4G||B Prebble||Robert Hickmott||8- 3- 4|
|23||51X28083||Once Were Wild||51.5||11||4M||J Cassidy||Gai Waterhouse||13- 6- 2|
|24||13X13111||Maluckyday||51.0||6||4G||L Nolen||M W & J Hawkes||8- 5- 3|
2010 Melbourne Cup Horse Form Analysis
Shocking ran home for 6th on Saturday behind So You Think and was beaten by 7.5 lengths. Even though Shocking ran home from back in the field, his last 600 meters of the race was covered in 35.6 seconds while the winner broke 35 seconds in the run to the line. It looks almost impossible for him to turn the tables. If So You Think wasn’t in this year’s field and as long as the track is not heavy, Shocking would be a live chance. His draw of barrier 24 probably wont be a disadvantage, if it is wet you always prefer to draw wider.
International runner Campanologist wasn’t up to winning Group 1 races back in the UK so he went to Germany and won two weak Group 1 races there. Very hard to see Campanologist figuring at the finish and we think it is severely disadvantaged in the weights.
3. So You Think
So You Think is the best horse Australia has seen for sometime. Trained by Bart Cummings, the “Cups King”, So You Think is unbeaten this Melbourne Cup preparation and has won his last 5 starts. Back-to-back Cox Plate winner, So You Think thrashed the field at Flemington on Saturday and none of the horses that finished behind him there could possibly beat him in the big race.
Lloyd Williams is on a mission to win another Cup and has evergreen 9 year old Zipping. Everything this stable does is about getting their horses to the Melbourne Cup and they are a very professional team. Zipping seems to be racing better this year than in any other year. He has started in the Melbourne Cup 3 times before, finishing 4th on twice and 9th the other time. A true professional horse who will finish in the top half of the field but doesn’t like wet tracks much.
5. Illustrious Blue
International 9 year old Illustrious Blue has won at the Melbourne Cup distance but has struggled in Group 1 level races overseas. There is no reason to think he can beat the best horses in Australia. Illustrious Blue has been in work for more than 12 months and has travelled a lot, it’s a big ask to come here and do well.
6. Mr Medici
Has Darren Beadman been booked to ride Mr Medici so the horse will have every chance. Mr Medici’s run in the Caulfield Cup first up was pretty good and was only beaten by just over 4 lengths. He can handle wet tracks pretty well and probably isn’t here to just make up the field numbers and might have a chance of a sneaky place if he gets some breaks.
7. Shoot Out
AJC Derby Winner Shoot Out doesn’t mind a wet track. A highly consistent horse who has raced the best all season and should be right in the mix. Shoot Out has had a long preparation this season which has been questioned by a few astute people but the trainer knows the horse the best. At the current price of $41 he is well over the odds, but he ran the second best time for the last 600 meters in the Mackinnon Stakes at Flemington on Saturday and is right on track for the Melbourne Cup.
Americain is the first French horse to compete in the Melbourne Cup and has had good form around the Cup distance back in France. He has won his last 4 starts but got all the breaks in the Geelong Cup. Americain didn’t race on Derby Day and we think he is probably more a Group 3 horse and isn’t very good value at the current odds.
9. Tokai Trick
Tokai Trick is a second tier Japanese runner and while it is nice to see the Japanese back in the Melbourne Cup we wish they could have brought one of their better horses.
Buccellati met all of the Melbourne Cup qualifying criteria and was then bought by a group of Australian owners before being transferred here from the UK. All 4 of Buccellati starts since arriving in Australia have been terrible and the only interest in this galloper is if it can beat Tokai Trick to the line.
AJC Derby runner up Descarado had a fair run on Saturday in the Mackinnon Stakes at Flemington, but got run over by the champ So You Think. He put in a solid effort to win this year’s Caulfield Cup but the conditions suit him. Up to 2400 meters Descarado is the best wet tracker but we are unsure he will stick out the 3200 meters. Descarado is by the same sire as So You Think. There is a slight question mark on the form of the Caulfield Cup field but don’t discount Descarado.
12. Harris Tweed
Harris Tweed is a very consistent New Zealand horse who races equally well on good and wet tracks. He had a very good run in the Caulfield Cup where he was beaten by just over a length. You get the feeling Harris Tweed is coming of age and hasn’t raced in better form, he will be a good price and will relish the Melbourne Cup distance.
Manighar is another international horse that raced well in the 2010 Caulfield Cup and was beaten by under 3 lengths. He has fair form overseas in Group 3 races and won his first 5 starts and has form overseas around Americain. There is probably nothing between the two horses. Manighar is from a very astute stable in Luca Cumani and is definitely an international horse to watch.
14. Master O’Reilly
Now an 8 year old, Master O’Reilly hasn’t won in his last 25 starts since the Caulfield Cup of 2007. He did run 4th in the Melbourne Cup last year in what was an average Cup field, his best days are probably behind him.
15. Monaco Consul
2009 Victoria Derby winner Monaco Consul ran 3rd in the 2010 Caulfield Cup which was a nice run. Monaco Consul can handle all sorts of track conditions and trainer Michael Moroney wouldn’t have him in the Cup to just to make up the numbers. He will be a decent price but he has a chance to get into the top placings.
16. Profound Beauty
The Dermot Weld trained Profound Beauty came over here 2 years ago and ran fifth. You can’t help but think that was a conditioning run to give Profound Beauty the experience and to see if she would measure up, not unlike Vintage Crop who he also trained. One of the best international chances for years, Profound Beauty is in great form and is a good price at $26.
Zavite won this year’s Auckland Cup over the Melbourne Cup distance of 3200 meters, but has been struggling in the better races in Australia. The Auckland Cup form generally dose not stack up very well and Zavite was well beaten in the Caulfield Cup by 7.5 lengths.
Bauer is well known to Australians as this UK horse trained by Luca Cumani was finished a gallant second in the 2008 Melbourne Cup which was won by Viewed. He has had some injury issues and has only started twice since the 2008 Melbourne Cup. First up Bauer was beaten by a staggering 50 lengths, you would not think it has had the right preparation to win this year’s Cup but is with an astute stable and you wouldn’t think they would come out here for nothing.
Dettori takes the ride on Holberg as his preferred mount from the Godolphon stable. Holberg took 4 starts to win his maiden and hasn’t been racing in races anywhere near this class. Holberg is from the biggest stable in the world and they are no fools and has won over the distance before and is highly rated and well weighted.
Precedence is another 2010 Melbourne Cup runner trained by Bart Cummings and has looked like a Cups horse from its first race start. Had a soft win in the Moonee Valley Cup and the JRA Cup. Precedence is an out and out stayer and if his stable mate makes any mistakes he will be right there. Precedence is one to watch.
21. Red Ruler
New Zealand horse Red Ruler, who was by beaten 8 lengths behind Maluckyday in the Lexus Stakes, doesn’t appear to be in the right form at the right time. Will be very big odds and unlikely to trouble the field.
Linton’s only mission is the 2010 Melbourne Cup. Owned by Lloyd Williams Linton is just a dour stayer and the 3200 meters will be no trouble at all. Had a great run in the Lexus Stakes even though he got a few checks in the run he still plugged away. Linton was out sprinted to the line in the Lexus but wasn’t knocked about. The further they go the better Linton will be. At a good price he is a real chance.
23. Once Were Wild
Gai Waterhouse trained Once Were Wild is having a better run in Melbourne this year than she usually does. This tough mare destroyed the field in the AJC Oaks and ran a fair race in the Lexus Stakes at Flemington on Saturday where she was beaten by just on 2 lengths. She probably don’t want to see anything worse than a slow track but is a sneaky place chance at any price.
With the John Hawkes trained up and coming stayer Maluckyday we are not sure if the Melbourne Cup was really on the agenda this year but he has just kept getting better and better the longer the season go. Had a great win in the Lexus Stakes and being by Zabeel is bred to handle the wet, although his only start on a wet track was disappointing. Everyone is saying not this year maybe next year, but Hawkes would not have Maluckyday here if the horse wasn’t 100%.
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