Does The Melbourne Cup Barrier Draw Give Tokai Trick A Chance?

November 1, 2010

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Does The Melbourne Cup Barrier Draw Give Tokai Trick A Chance?

While Tokai Trick may not have looked good before the barrier draw on Saturday evening, does his barrier 4 start give him a winning Melbourne Cup chance? Let’s look at his career and the Melbourne Cup barrier statistics.

First of all, Tokai trick has run many of his races at 3000 metre to 3400 metres with wins and places in major events, including a third in the 3200 metre Tenno Sho in 2007. He has not won at 3200 metres, however, and a heavy track would be his downfall regardless of where he starts.

Barrier 4 is statistically fairly average for producing Melbourne Cup winners. It last produced a winner in 1987, but has produced more winners than So You Think’s barrier 3 with 4 wins to 3.

The more superstitious among us might also see a sign in the fact that the last barrier 4 winner was named Kensei – a Japanese word roughly translated as ‘sword saint’. Could this mean that Tokai Trick is destined to cut down the rest of the field, defeating all comers like the legendary Japanese swordsman Miyamoto Musashi? Likely not, but it is interesting.

Tokai Trick has generally made good use of advantageous barrier starts throughout his career, but he has failed to impress for some time. Nevertheless, Tokai Trick now looks more likely to place or grab a finish in the first four, but still looks a hopeless chance to win.

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