Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
Shoot Out should be at the peak of his career right about now, but this season has given him far less success than he had earlier in the year. Nevertheless, we still have to ask if Shoot Out has a chance in the 2010 Melbourne Cup. Let’s look at what is in his favour.
First off, Shoot Out has been proven up to 2400 metres with an Australian Derby win in April. He hasn’t managed a win between 1600 metres and 2400 metre, so it could be that the longer distances suit him.
Next, while he hasn’t performed fantastically this season, Shoot Out has not finished outside the first four in every race he has run since returning from a break in late July. To take that further, he hasn’t finished outside the first four since January – 12 races ago.
His weight of 55kg is also quite reasonable and lower than he has run with for quite some time. It may be a wash when coupled with his barrier 17 draw, though.
If the track is slow, it could be an advantage for Shoot Out, who has proven more than capable under such conditions. A heavy track will go against him, but reports suggest it won’t be that bad on Melbourne Cup Day.
Now, let’s look at what goes against Shoot Out to win the Melbourne Cup.
While he hasn’t finished beyond the first four in a long time, he has been putting in less impressive runs as the season continues and the races get longer. To be fair, this could be slightly due to his problems with distances between 1600 metre to 2400 metres, but it is worth considering that he is tiring more with each race.
He has also lost to So You Think three times already. These losses were all at 1400 metres to 2000 metres, though it seems that the only way Shoot Out could reverse this trend is if So You Think absolutely fails beyond 2000 metres.
All in all, Shoot Out looks very good as a selection in any box trifectas or First Four bets you have, but a win does not look at all likely. To place your bets now, join Luxbet! New players can get a $400 bonus bet on their first deposit when using the promo code ‘EXTRA400’. High rollers should instead take advantage of the Luxbet High Roller Bonus that gives a $1,000 free bet using the promo code ‘EXTRA1000’.
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