Could Descarado Win The 2010 Melbourne Cup?

November 1, 2010

Could Descarado Win The 2010 Melbourne Cup?

Descarado looks to be Gai Waterhouse’s best chance in the 2010 Melbourne Cup, but could he give this legendary trainer her first Melbourne Cup win after having won her a first Caulfield Cup? Let’s see what goes in Descarado’s favour.

Let’s talk about his Caulfield Cup win to start with. He came home strong against other Melbourne Cup hopefuls like Harris Tweed, Monaco Consul and Shocking. This alone is a tremendous point in his favour, but his second place finish behind Shoot Out at 2400 metres earlier this year also hints at a good Melbourne Cup run.

A barrier 1 start is always welcome, though it is not as successful in the Melbourne Cup as you might think, having produced just as many winners as barriers 4, 9, 10 and 17. Nevertheless, would you seriously hope for a better barrier?

The wet track will serve Descarado well, regardless of whether it is slow or heavy. He has proven more than capable in the wet across a range of distances, and this could very easily be what hands him the win.

With all that said, here are the points against Descarado winning the Melbourne Cup.

While he finished an impressive second place in the Mackinnon Stakes on Derby Day, it was still 3.8 lengths behind So You Think. This performance makes it seem unlikely he’ll improve upon that, but it does make Descarado a must-have in any Melbourne Cup trifectas or First Four bets you make.

It hurts to say, but while Gai Waterhouse is a great trainer, she still hasn’t produced a Melbourne Cup winner. You could point to her Caulfield Cup win and say it’s a sign things have changed, but that really just seems as if she focused on winning at Caulfield this year and kept a Melbourne Cup attempt as an afterthought. When you consider Gai’s greater enthusiasm for Herculian Prince earlier, it’s hard to think that Descarado was ever seriously aimed at a Melbourne Cup run before his Caulfield Cup win.

Descarado is definitely a chance to win, but this will depend on a heavy track and for So You Think to start failing as the runners go beyond 2000 metres. He absolutely must be in any serious trifecta or First Four selections, and is worth including in quinellas and exactas as well.

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