Shocking managed to win the 2009 Melbourne Cup despite a barrier 21 start, but can he win the 2010 Melbourne Cup from barrier 24? Let’s start with what’s in his favour.
Obviously the biggest point in Shocking’s favour is his Melbourne Cup win last year from a very wide barrier. This proves he is definitely comfortable at the distance and can overcome whatever minor disadvantage a poor barrier provides at this distance.
Being a 5 year old is also in Shocking’s favour. 4 and 5 year old entire horses have historically had the most success in the Melbourne Cup. Statistics don’t always mean much, but it is worth considering.
For the superstitious, Shocking’s win in the Makybe Diva Stakes this season would seem ominous. This has been his only win this season, though Makybe Diva didn’t win any lead up race in her second Melbourne Cup season.
Now for what goes against Shocking. Let’s start with the fact that he has already lost to So You Think twice, once at 1800 metres in the Underwood Stakes and at 2400 metres in the Mackinnon Stakes. Every time So You Think is in the race, Shocking doesn’t even place.
Next, Shocking will carry the top weight from the widest barrier, probably on a very wet track. He had a wide barrier last year, but only carried 51kg. This year he carries 57kg from a worse barrier. It just doesn’t look good.
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