With such a high quality Melbourne Cup field this year, can Monaco Consul win the Melbourne Cup? First, we’ll look at the reasons why he could.
Monaco Consul has proven staying power, with a 2500 metre Victoria Derby win in 2009 and a third place in the 2400 metre Caulfield Cup last start.
He will carry just 54kg in this run, putting him equal with the majority of the runners and better than a few of the best chances.
An element you cannot undervalue is Monaco Consul’s versatility under many different conditions. The wet won’t kill his chances, and he’ll still race well if it’s dry, making Monaco Consul a pretty safe performer regardless of the insane weather patterns of Melbourne.
Now, let’s get to the reasons Monaco Consul is not likely to win the Melbourne Cup (but isn’t a bad chance to place).
First of all, he’s already been beaten by a large portion of the field. To be fair, he has avenged some of those losses and his Caulfield Cup run was a clear improvement on other recent starts, but there are plenty in the 2010 Melbourne Cup field that you can’t rely on Monaco Consul to beat.
The barrier 14 start for Monaco Consul isn’t terrible, but it does convert a slight winning chance to a slight placing chance. It’s never a huge advantage over the 3200 metre distance of the Melbourne Cup, though, so this is hardly a tremendous handicap.
Finally, Monaco Consul has made a habit lately of finishing third at the very best and otherwise coming home much further back. He hasn’t done too well under Craig Williams, either, who will be on him again this run after having restored some faith after the Caulfield Cup run.
Monaco Consul just might place, but he doesn’t look a vital pick in any sort of bet. This field is just too good for him, with enough good wet track specialists to make his own on-and-off wet performances fairly meaningless.
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