Can Tokai Trick Win The Melbourne Cup?

Japanese hopeful Tokai Trick was clearly sent here for a Melbourne Cup run, though his trainers clearly did not strategise all that well by choosing the Caulfield Cup as his initial run. Neverthless it is worth asking: can Tokai Trick win the Melbourne Cup? We will start with the points in his favour.

Tokai Trick has an enormous amount of experience at the 3200 metre distance, far more than the majority of runners will have. This includes strong performances in the Tenno Sho, a very competitive run, though his best runs are far behind him.

Experience at the distance is really all Tokai Trick has going for him. Now for the many points against him…

Tokai Trick has no wins at 3200 metres. Many places and wins at the 3000 metre and 3400 metre distances, but never at 3200 metres. That just seems odd, and he hasn’t even placed that often at this distance, either.

He is also 8 years old, which is far beyond the age of a Melbourne Cup winner. While that might be unfair if he was in top form, he really isn’t.

Finally, Tokai Trick will struggle in the wet and has practically no experience running on wet tracks. This will be his absolute undoing in the Melbourne Cup.

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