Forget Shocking on Derby Day, Wait for the 2010 Melbourne Cup

There is a groundswell with punters for Shocking to beat So You Think today in the Mackinnon Stakes, as is often the case by people look for something to beat the favourites. Shocking has good credentials as he is a track specialist at Flemington having had 5 starts there for 4 wins and a second. Shocking can handle any track condition and has jockey Michael Rodd on board.

Picture courtesy of © Taron Clarke Photography

But Shocking cant do it today, the champ So You Think should beat him backing up a week after thrashing the field in the Cox Plate and it wont do him any harm as they only really ran 600 meters. So You Think is a big strong horse too and will be suited to Flemington track even though his only start there he was beaten, the race was over a mile at the end of his preparation just after he won his first Cox Plate last year. He will convincingly beat the field today, make no mistake he is a champion and they wont get near him over 2000 meters.

We don’t think So You Think can win the Melbourne Cup though; 3 runs in 10 days, a big step up in distance and he still does get a little stirred up. It wouldn’t surprise us if today is his last run this preparation and he doesn’t even start in the 2010 Melbourne Cup.

Next year is a different story, if he doesn’t go to stud our money will be on him to come back to win his 3rd Cox Plate and then take out the 2011 Melbourne Cup.