Can Campanologist Win The Melbourne Cup?

October 30, 2010

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Can Campanologist Win The Melbourne Cup?

While there are some concerns about how Campanologist might handle the Melbourne Cup crowd, he is still most likely going to run. So, can Campanologist win the Melbourne Cup? Let’s begin with the points in his favour.

Campanologist’s major advantage will be a long and successful career running races of more than 2000 metres in length. In the past few months, he has won three Group races of 2400 metres or more, with two of those being Group 1 runs.

Next, a few easy things in his favour is that Campanologist is a five year old complete horse, which has historically been the most likely age and sex to win the Melbourne Cup.

Campanologist is also good in the wet, and the amount of rain at Flemington will make this a very important factor in deciding the winner. His last Group 1 win was on a heavy track, and he finished over 3 lengths ahead.

Now for what’s against him. Campanologist has absolutely no experience in Australia. Not only is he yet to win a race here – he has yet to be in one. His time in quarantine may also have had an effect on him.

He also hasn’t raced beyond the 2400 metre mark. While his experience at that distance proves better staying power than many Melbourne Cup runners, it is no guarantee that he will do well at the 3200 metre distance. Another 800 metres will matter.

Whether he can win the Cup or not we will have to wait until the day to see. A place looks quite likely for Campanologist, though, especially if he gets a decent barrier.

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