Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
Tomorrow the highly anticipated Melbourne Cup Carnival will kick off at Flemington Racecourse with the 2010 Victoria Derby Day. With heavy rain scheduled to fall overnight, the Races.com.au team provide punters with the latest betting tips and what horses to back on the wet track.
Keep in mind that as Victoria Derby Day progresses tomorrow on a rain-affected track, horses drawn on the rail are likely to get caught up and will be forced to race through heavy going conditions.
So in the later Flemington races especially, keep an eye on horses drawn wider away from the fence as a good Derby Day betting tip.
Victoria Derby Day – Flemington Race 1 – Carbine Club Stakes
Victoria Derby Day kicks off tomorrow at 11:10am (AEDST) with the $250,000 Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m).
- Top Wet Trackers to Back: #1 Skilled, #2 Mr Chard and #7 Get Out of Town Luxbet
Skilled is the clear favourite at $2.50 and looks hard to beat.
But Mr Chard will find the rain a real plus, coming off an impressive win in the Gothic Stakes on a Heavy Caulfield track.
Get Out of Town is the best roughie in the field, currently paying $21. Loves the soft ground but is stepping up to Group company for the first time.
Victoria Derby Day – Flemington Race 2 – The Lexus Stakes
The second race of the day is the $250,000 Group 3 The Lexus Stakes (2500m) at 11:50pm (AEDST), where a Melbourne Cup ballot exemption is on offer to the winner.
- Top Wet Trackers to Back: #5 Linton, #8 Moudre and #9 Purple Luxbet
Lloyd Williams’ lightly-raced grey Linton is ideally positioned midfield in barrier five and is coming off a smashing win in the Herbert Power Stakes – one of the favourites at $4.80.
Word is one time Caulfield Cup favourite Moudre is going better in the wet than dry and is a tough runner that will put in a strong run – good value at $5 but needs to move off the rail.
Purple is the superior wet tracker of the field, Peter Snowden’s mare best value of the field at $6.
Victoria Derby Day – Flemington Race 3 – Wakeful Stakes
Race 3 on Saturday is the $300,000 Group 2 Wakeful Stakes (2000m) for three-year-old fillies at 12:35pm (AEDST).
- Top Wet Trackers to Back: #7 Brazilian Pulse, #9 Alittlebitofmonica and #13 Maraaseem Luxbet
Mike Moroney’s Brazilian Pulse can seemingly perform well on all conditions and is one of the favourites at $4.60.
Alittlebitofmonica excels in the wet but she is drawn in barrier one, may find the inside running too hard going if she gets stuck.
Maraaseem best value of the field at $41 – great roughie for the exotics.
Victoria Derby Day – Flemington Race 4 – Coolmore Stud Stakes
The first Group 1 race on the bumper nine-event Victoria Derby Day card tomorrow is the $500,000 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) due to jump at 1:20pm (AEDST).
- Top Wet Trackers to Back: #3 Buffering and #4 Soul Luxbet
The Danny O’Brien-trained Star Witness is the clear favourite paying $3.80, the classy colt impressive at trackwork here Tuesday.
But Soul at $6 looks the pick of the field on a rain-affected track. Peter Snowden’s gelding won the Danehill here on a Heavy track two starts back, then ran a gallant third to Set For Fame last start at Caulfield, which was their only defeat on a track rated Heavy.
Also try Buffering at $7, good for the placings.
Victoria Derby Day – Flemington Race 5 – Mackinnon Stakes
The second Group 1 event and one of the most anticipated showdowns is the $1 million Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) running as Race 5 at 2:05pm (AEDST).
- Top Wet Trackers to Back: #6 So You Think, #7 Descarado, #4 Ginga Dude and #3 C’est La Guerre Luxbet
This cracker field is full of known wet trackers, which opens up the markets.
Betting is totally dominated by So You Think, into $1.60 at Luxbet. If the Cox Plate champion can be beaten it is likely to be by Caulfield Cup winner and mud lark Descarado.
Rain will be a big bonus for C’est La Guerre who relishes the soft ground, brilliant price at $51 to add into exotics.
Giga Dude is another galloper who has recently impressed on heavy ground – good Each Way chance.
Victoria Derby Day – Flemington Race 6 – Victoria Derby
The headline of the day is the $1.5 million Group 1 Victoria Derby (2500m) due to jump at 2:55pm (AEDST).
- Top Wet Trackers to Back: #1 Retrieve, #3 Lion Tamer, #6 Yulalona and #9 Digital Fortress Luxbet
Second favourite Retrieve is a proven heavy track performer that could be hard to beat coming off a Norman Robinson Stakes win.
AAMI Vase runner-up Lion Tamer was strong to the line behind Rekindled Interest and will love it wet.
Snowden’s other Victoria Derby starter Yulalona is top roughie at $31, drawn in 17 but this could prove a plus by the sixth race with the inside getting choppy.
Digital Fortress also can’t be discounted – will have no issue in the rain.
Victoria Derby Day – Flemington Race 7 – Myer Classic
Third Group 1 race on the card is the $500,000 Myer Classic (1600m) for three-year-old fillies and mares, jumping at 3:40pm (AEDST).
- Top Wet Trackers to Back: #1 Hot Danish, #3 Culminate and #7 Katie Lee
Last year’s winner Typhoon Tracy is the raging favourite, but into $2.10 and only proven up to a Slow rating, there could be better value elsewhere.
Depending on how the conditions at Flemington are going, Hot Danish will come into the mix if track is Slow but if it is Heavy the seven-year-old may struggle.
Bring in $12 chance Culminate, great win in the Tristarc at Heavy Caulfield track last start – sure to improve.
Katie Lee also worth a look for a Place despite dismal last start run here in the Blazer Stakes.
Victoria Derby Day – Flemington Race 8 – Salinger Stakes
The second last race of the meeting is the $300,000 Group 2 Salinger Stakes (1200m), the sprint feature set to start at 4:25pm (AEDST).
- Top Wet Trackers to Back: #5 Swift Alliance, #6 Shellscrape, #7 Beaded and #8 Set For Fame Luxbet
Swift Alliance is first-up after a 28 week break. Has had one run for one win on a Heavy track, inside barrier two draw may be a disadvantage.
Shellscrape is the leading wet tracker in this field, good value at $7 and outside barrier 10 draw will be a big bonus at the end of the day.
Peter Snowden’s Beaded is also resuming after 18 week break, proven up to a Slow rating so could be value at $14.
Set For Fame for Peter Moody is unkown on the straight cause, but was brilliant last start winning the Caulfield Sprint on heavy ground. $4.80 favourite for a reason.
Victoria Derby Day – Flemington Race 9 – AAMI Business Insurance Stakes
The closing race of the day is the $250,000 Group 3 AAMI Business Insurance Stakes (1400m) running at 5:10pm (AEDST)
- Top Wet Trackers to Back: #1 Dao Dao, #4 Jungle Ruler and #11 Prince Braeman Luxbet
Dao Dao has impeccable wet track form and also looks good over 1400m.
Jungle Ruler is looking excellent value at $9.50, good wide draw and these conditions will suit.
Prince Braeman also comes right into the mix after two wins from two heavy track starts by big margins.
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